We'll be looking for a little green tomorrow at 3 major Derby prep races.
The Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3), to be run at Tampa Bay Downs at a mile and a sixteenth, attracted a field of 7. Favorite Street Sense (Calvin Borel) is listed morning line at 4/5. Not a very inviting proposition. Yes, he did win the Breeder's Cup Juvenile by 10 lengths; but, this is his first start in 2007 and he will be overbet. Also, I expect a fast pace in the race. Calvin Borel is a "full throttle" rider and will have Street Sense out there either on or close to the lead. I think Street Sense may need a race and to get anything less than 5/2 seems a bad bet. Who to bet? Any Given Saturday. Ridden by John Velasquez and trained by Todd Pletcher, Any Given Saturday has been running well and has been drilling bullet workouts leading up to this race. He is morning line listed at 9/5. If he stays there or floats up a bit to 2/1 or 5/2, he is the pick. There are two others that are quite intriguing. All I Can Get is a Michigan bred (yes, Michigan) who is morning line listed at 8/1. Shipping down to Florida for this race may seem crazy; but, they wouldn't do it unless they thought he had a shot. The other longshot is Delightful Kiss to be ridden by Jeffrey Sanchez. Hobeau Farm owns Delightful Kiss and Hobeau rarely sends out horses onto the Triple Crown trail unless they felt they had something. So, at 12/1, he's worth a stab at a few bucks. The Bet: $2 Exacta- Any Given Saturday over All I Can Get and Delightful Kiss. $2 Exacta All I Can Get and Delightful Kiss over Any Given Saturday. $2 WPS- Delightful Kiss. Total $14.
Let's move on to the San Felipe Stakes (Grade 2) at Santa Anita at a mile and one sixteenth. This race drew a short field of 6 and is pretty wide open. Air Commander (Garrett Gomez) is the morning line favorite at 8/5 with Cobalt Blue (Victor Espinoza) close behind at 9/5. Trainer Todd Pletcher has yet another Derby hopeful in Grapelli (Richard Migliore) who is morning line listed at 3/1. Todd Pletcher has at least 6 horses ready for the Derby; so, we'll give him the edge in this one and take the 3/1 odds. The Bet: $2 Exacta wheel- Grapelli over All. Total $10.
For our finale, let's look at the Rebel Stakes (Grade 3) at Oaklawn Park, also run at a mile and a sixteenth. The Rebel has been a key race for the Ky. Derby over the past several years. Smarty Jones comes to mind. The Rebel drew a field of 9 and there is value in this race. The morning line favorite is Flying First Class (Edgar Prado) at 2/1. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, you know D. Wayne will have his charge primed and ready to go. Prado flying in for the mount is a huge plus. I also like Teuflesberg (Stewart Elliott). Teuflesberg has been an "in & outer" and at 9/2, is worth a play. His connections are serious about the Derby. To round out our trifecta, local horse Xchanger (John Jacinto) at 10/1 could prove to be the "horse for the course". The Bet: $2 Exacta box: Flying First Class, Teuflesberg and XChanger. $5 WPS- Teuflesberg.
May the horse be with you!
Racetrack Lenny
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment