History was made yesterday when Rags To Riches became the first filly since 1905--yes, 102 years ago, to win the Belmont Stakes in thrilling fashion to get up by a nose at the wire. The stretch duel was right out of 1978 "Affirmed/Alydar". Sent off as the 4-1 second choice in the wagering (in a short field of 7), Rags To Riches was the sentimental favorite as demonstrated by the standing ovation she received as she came past us in the Post Parade.
In the 1-1/2 mile "Test of Champions", you knew the key would be stamina, pace and pure dumb luck. In the stamina category, we knew Rags To Riches could get the distance having Secretariat and A.P. Indy in her bloodlines and being a half-sister to last year's Belmont winner, Jazil. However, it is an incredibly tough proposition for a filly to take on the best boys around and win. Rags To Riches victory was impressive in that she was the first filly to win at the Belmont distance of 1-1/2 miles. The first Belmont in 1867 was won by a filly, Ruthless, when the race was contested at 1-5/8 miles--just a tad longer than the current Belmont distance. Tanya in 1905 won the Belmont when it was run at a 1-1/4 miles-- a quarter mile shorter than today's classic distance.
When the gates opened, I thought Rags To Riches had lost all chance when she stumbled badly and nearly went down to her knees. However, jockey John Velasquez kept his cool, knew it was a long race and gathered her together to reach mid-pack. It also helped considerably that the pace was lethargic. C.P. West and Slew's Tizzy alternated on the lead through an opening 1/4 in 24-3/5ths and a half in 50 seconds flat. At the 3/4 mile marker, C.P. West and Slew's Tizzy were still there in 1:15-2/5ths--a pedestrian pace. Hard Spun, who I thought would be the pace setter, was being hard held in 3rd by Garrett Gomez. Curlin was racing on the rail and looked like he might get boxed in since the front 2 had yet to start backing up and the pace was slow. Tiago was making his move and Rags To Riches was in the clear on the outside just 4 lengths off the lead.
Approaching the stretch, Curlin found room at the rail to get by and begin his bid. Rags To Riches swung 4 wide to circle the field and get right alongside Curlin and the battle was on. Those two just ding-donged through the stretch with Curlin having the lead one second and then Rags To Riches would have the lead when her head came down. At the wire, it was Rags To Riches head coming down just as Curlin's head was coming up and the filly wins by a nose. What a roar from the crowd of only 46,976.
Jockey John Velasquez showed his class when he brought Rags To Riches past the stands for her fans to cheer her on. In my 37 years of attending the Belmont, the last time I saw a horse get such an ovation was Secretariat and Affirmed. It was a very popular victory. It was good for the sport.
I also have to sing the praises of track announcer Tom Durkin. His call of that race will go down as one of the best calls of any race, anywhere. He is the best in the business.
It will be an interesting summer to see how Monmouth and Saratoga now battle to get Rags To Riches t0 keep racing against the boys in their signature events--the Haskell and the Travers. I'm hoping owner Michael Tabor and trainer Todd Pletcher go ahead and have her run again against the boys.
In a short field, there wasn't a lot of money to be made; but, the race was rich just by itself.
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
Sunday, June 10, 2007
Friday, June 8, 2007
The Belmont
I'll be out to Belmont Park for the 37th consecutive year at the Belmont Stakes. I wish the race was a good betting race; but, it certainly should be an interesting race, especially with the presence of the brilliant filly Rags To Riches.
I was a bit surprised when the track's odds-maker made Rags To Riches the 3rd choice at 3/1. Maybe the odds maker took into account the "filly versus the males" angle which will attract money to Rags. Also, a catchy name that sums up what everyone wants to happen to them--go from Rags to Riches!
Here's my thoughts on the field:
1. I'm A Wild & Crazy Guy: A one-run closer who needs a fast pace to close into. That scenario generally doesn't develop too often in the Belmont. Jazil won from last to first last year; but, the opening fractions were very fast. More often than not, tactical speed wins the race. This horse may be flying at the end; but, best to use him at the bottom of your trifecta bets.
2. Tiago: Another one-run closer who needs a strong pace. He is related to Giacomo; however, remember that Giacomo finished a non-threatening 4th in his Belmont. This west coast based horse may find the Belmont surfact a little too deep for his liking.
3. Curlin: A deserving favorite who will likely go off at even money or less. For that return, I am looking to beat him. Yes, he put in a huge run in the Preakness equaling Secretariat's record for that distance. However, is he capable of another such effort? I am betting he isn't.
4. C.P. West: Trainer Nick Zito beat Smarty Jones with Birdstone--and C.P. West has followed Birdstone's training regimen and race tab. So, a win by C.P. West, while not likely, is not totally out of the question.
5. Slew's Tizzy: Is very much overmatched here; but, he will be a pace factor. He can't get the distance. The question is will he sucker Hard Spun and Rags To Riches into matching strides early. I hope not.
6. Hard Spun: Brilliant effort in the Derby, setting a strong pace and getting beat by a brilliant Street Sense. A very nice effort in the Preakness despite Mario Pino moving much too soon on him. It cost Pino the mount as Garrett Gomez replaces him for tomorrow's race. I think he can set a sensible pace and last to the end.
7. Rags To Riches: Certainly adds an "angle" to the race. Can a filly beat the boys? Sure--if the right pace scenario sets up. She will carry 5 lbs. less than the boys which is a plus. If she can rate off the expected pacesetter- Slew's Tizzy, and get the jump on Hard Spun, she can be around at the finish line.
Bets:
$2 Exacta: 6,7 over ALL.
$1 Trifecta: 6/7 with 6/7 with 1,2,3,4,5
$1 Trifecta 6/7 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 6/7
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
I was a bit surprised when the track's odds-maker made Rags To Riches the 3rd choice at 3/1. Maybe the odds maker took into account the "filly versus the males" angle which will attract money to Rags. Also, a catchy name that sums up what everyone wants to happen to them--go from Rags to Riches!
Here's my thoughts on the field:
1. I'm A Wild & Crazy Guy: A one-run closer who needs a fast pace to close into. That scenario generally doesn't develop too often in the Belmont. Jazil won from last to first last year; but, the opening fractions were very fast. More often than not, tactical speed wins the race. This horse may be flying at the end; but, best to use him at the bottom of your trifecta bets.
2. Tiago: Another one-run closer who needs a strong pace. He is related to Giacomo; however, remember that Giacomo finished a non-threatening 4th in his Belmont. This west coast based horse may find the Belmont surfact a little too deep for his liking.
3. Curlin: A deserving favorite who will likely go off at even money or less. For that return, I am looking to beat him. Yes, he put in a huge run in the Preakness equaling Secretariat's record for that distance. However, is he capable of another such effort? I am betting he isn't.
4. C.P. West: Trainer Nick Zito beat Smarty Jones with Birdstone--and C.P. West has followed Birdstone's training regimen and race tab. So, a win by C.P. West, while not likely, is not totally out of the question.
5. Slew's Tizzy: Is very much overmatched here; but, he will be a pace factor. He can't get the distance. The question is will he sucker Hard Spun and Rags To Riches into matching strides early. I hope not.
6. Hard Spun: Brilliant effort in the Derby, setting a strong pace and getting beat by a brilliant Street Sense. A very nice effort in the Preakness despite Mario Pino moving much too soon on him. It cost Pino the mount as Garrett Gomez replaces him for tomorrow's race. I think he can set a sensible pace and last to the end.
7. Rags To Riches: Certainly adds an "angle" to the race. Can a filly beat the boys? Sure--if the right pace scenario sets up. She will carry 5 lbs. less than the boys which is a plus. If she can rate off the expected pacesetter- Slew's Tizzy, and get the jump on Hard Spun, she can be around at the finish line.
Bets:
$2 Exacta: 6,7 over ALL.
$1 Trifecta: 6/7 with 6/7 with 1,2,3,4,5
$1 Trifecta 6/7 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 6/7
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
Sunday, May 27, 2007
Same Old, Same Old
The hope of a large field in the Belmont is starting to look today like a small field--maybe as few as 6. One defection is Great Hunter, finishing near the back of the pack in the Derby, who was injured in a workout and will miss the Belmont. He will be pointed towards a campaign in the Fall. Another defection is Chelokee. Trainer Michael Matz (he of Barbaro fame) announced that it was "too much, too soon" to expose Chelokee to a mile and a half race after a big win in the Barbaro Stakes on Preakness Day.
One positive development is the replacement of Hard Spun jockey Mario Pino by Garrett Gomez. I like Mario Pino. He's a good rider with a lot of talent. But, just about everyone believes he gunned Hard Spun way too soon in the Preakness and his connections believe it cost him the race. Garrett Gomez is hot right now and he is one of the best riders for horses that need to be "on or close" to the lead. I still think Hard Spun is going to make believers of a lot of fans when he wires the Belmont. We'll see.
Curlin has come out of the Preakness is good shape and he's been galloping over a mile- a very good sign. Street Sense's connections will make a decision (they say) by Wednesday whether they will go in the Belmont. Street Sense galloped the Belmont distance and came out of it in good order. It would be nice to see a "rubber match" in the Belmont.
Other "confirmed" starters include I'mawildandcrazyguy, Slew's Tizzy and Tiago. The super filly, Rags To Riches, is now on the fence. I don't know what's prompted the sudden "we don't know". Shug McGaughey looked like he would run Sightseeing; but, they're now not sure. Shug may be thinking turf for his trainee. Nobiz Like Shobiz has gone from "yes" to "maybe" to "no"--typical of Barclay Tagg--don't be surprised if Nobiz shows up in the entry box on June 6th.
French invader, Cristobal, now seems unlikely to make the trans-Atlantic trip. He's run one race, which he won. The Belmont is asking an awful lot real soon. His connections are having some second thoughts---and well they should!
Before signing off, please keep Belmont jockey, Andrew Lakeman, in your thoughts and prayers. Lakeman was severely injured this past Friday at Belmont Park when his mount broke down. He is in Long Island's North Shore Medical Center in the intensive care unit with severe internal and spinal injuries. He is in a coma and on a ventilator. Our good wishes are with him.
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
One positive development is the replacement of Hard Spun jockey Mario Pino by Garrett Gomez. I like Mario Pino. He's a good rider with a lot of talent. But, just about everyone believes he gunned Hard Spun way too soon in the Preakness and his connections believe it cost him the race. Garrett Gomez is hot right now and he is one of the best riders for horses that need to be "on or close" to the lead. I still think Hard Spun is going to make believers of a lot of fans when he wires the Belmont. We'll see.
Curlin has come out of the Preakness is good shape and he's been galloping over a mile- a very good sign. Street Sense's connections will make a decision (they say) by Wednesday whether they will go in the Belmont. Street Sense galloped the Belmont distance and came out of it in good order. It would be nice to see a "rubber match" in the Belmont.
Other "confirmed" starters include I'mawildandcrazyguy, Slew's Tizzy and Tiago. The super filly, Rags To Riches, is now on the fence. I don't know what's prompted the sudden "we don't know". Shug McGaughey looked like he would run Sightseeing; but, they're now not sure. Shug may be thinking turf for his trainee. Nobiz Like Shobiz has gone from "yes" to "maybe" to "no"--typical of Barclay Tagg--don't be surprised if Nobiz shows up in the entry box on June 6th.
French invader, Cristobal, now seems unlikely to make the trans-Atlantic trip. He's run one race, which he won. The Belmont is asking an awful lot real soon. His connections are having some second thoughts---and well they should!
Before signing off, please keep Belmont jockey, Andrew Lakeman, in your thoughts and prayers. Lakeman was severely injured this past Friday at Belmont Park when his mount broke down. He is in Long Island's North Shore Medical Center in the intensive care unit with severe internal and spinal injuries. He is in a coma and on a ventilator. Our good wishes are with him.
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Now To The 9th At Belmont--The Belmont Stakes
The saddest people in the world over the outcome of the Preakness was the New York Racing Association. The lack of a triple crown draw will cost them 1/2 their crowd. If some of the top horses decide to skip the Belmont, look for less than 50,000 to show up.
Trainer Larry Jones has pretty much confirmed that Hard Spun will run in the Belmont. Don't let the Preakness fool you. Hard Spun can get the distance--he just needs to be rated and get a patient ride. I'm sensing a Bet Twice type of victory. Street Sense's connections are up in the air about the Belmont, which would be a shame. It would be great for racing for a "rubber match". I'm hoping they'll run. Curlin seems likely to go in the Belmont. Kentucky Oaks winner, Rags to Riches, seems pointed to the Belmont. She would be the first filly in a long time to try the boys in the mile and half marathon.
Other possibilities include: I'mawildandcrazyguy--who closed for 4th in the Derby. Tiago who finished 7th in the Derby; Chelokee, who won the inaugural running of the Barbaro Stakes on the Preakness undercard. Barclay Tagg seems inclined to run No Biz Like Shobiz. No Biz's Derby performance was inexplicably dreadful; anything would be an improvement. Strong closer, Sightseeing, winner of the Peter Pan seems possible. And, what would a Belmont be without a foreign horse shipping in from Europe? This year, it looks like we'll have a French shipper in Cristobal who won his lone start, something called the Prix De Ferrieres.
Stay tuned for updates.
Racetrack Lenny
Trainer Larry Jones has pretty much confirmed that Hard Spun will run in the Belmont. Don't let the Preakness fool you. Hard Spun can get the distance--he just needs to be rated and get a patient ride. I'm sensing a Bet Twice type of victory. Street Sense's connections are up in the air about the Belmont, which would be a shame. It would be great for racing for a "rubber match". I'm hoping they'll run. Curlin seems likely to go in the Belmont. Kentucky Oaks winner, Rags to Riches, seems pointed to the Belmont. She would be the first filly in a long time to try the boys in the mile and half marathon.
Other possibilities include: I'mawildandcrazyguy--who closed for 4th in the Derby. Tiago who finished 7th in the Derby; Chelokee, who won the inaugural running of the Barbaro Stakes on the Preakness undercard. Barclay Tagg seems inclined to run No Biz Like Shobiz. No Biz's Derby performance was inexplicably dreadful; anything would be an improvement. Strong closer, Sightseeing, winner of the Peter Pan seems possible. And, what would a Belmont be without a foreign horse shipping in from Europe? This year, it looks like we'll have a French shipper in Cristobal who won his lone start, something called the Prix De Ferrieres.
Stay tuned for updates.
Racetrack Lenny
You Don't Know How Lucky You Are!
Under the "Twilight Zone" moment, I could have sworn I put up my Preakness analysis on the Blog. I was away for the weekend and was going to sit down to do my Preakness postmortem, when I noticed my Preakness prognostication was missing. I searched for drafts, under my old blog, under my bed--all to no avail. I have no idea what happened. However, my mystery was your enormous gain since my order of finish was Hard Spun, Street Sense, Circular Quay. You would have bet $75 and come back with a pitiful $3 show price on Hard Spun. Turn the page.
Too bad for Street Sense. He had the race won; but, Street Sense got to the lead and decided to gawk at the crowd and lost the race on a "head-bob" to Curlin. It's time for trainer Carl Nafgzer to invest in a good set of blinkers for Street Sense. I thought Curlin had the "fear of God" put into him in the Derby and he would regress. Wrong! He came through with a breathtaking performance that equaled the track record now shared by Secretariat, Tank's Prospect and Louis Quatorze. Not bad company, huh?
With a suicidal pace being set by Xchanger and Flying First Class, Mario Pino moved Hard Spun to the lead way too early and was sucking wind in mid-stretch. This was a race meant for closers; so, it was a big disappointment when Circular Quay showed nothing. Something is not quite right with this horse. Time for a rest.
Congratulations to the connections of Curlin. I must also say that Calvin Borel on Street Sense showed a TON of class in defeat. While upset he didn't win, he was thrilled for his fellow Louisiana buddy Robby Albarado. God will always reward that type of sportsmanship. Calvin-- YOU were the winner that day!
Racetrack Lenny
Too bad for Street Sense. He had the race won; but, Street Sense got to the lead and decided to gawk at the crowd and lost the race on a "head-bob" to Curlin. It's time for trainer Carl Nafgzer to invest in a good set of blinkers for Street Sense. I thought Curlin had the "fear of God" put into him in the Derby and he would regress. Wrong! He came through with a breathtaking performance that equaled the track record now shared by Secretariat, Tank's Prospect and Louis Quatorze. Not bad company, huh?
With a suicidal pace being set by Xchanger and Flying First Class, Mario Pino moved Hard Spun to the lead way too early and was sucking wind in mid-stretch. This was a race meant for closers; so, it was a big disappointment when Circular Quay showed nothing. Something is not quite right with this horse. Time for a rest.
Congratulations to the connections of Curlin. I must also say that Calvin Borel on Street Sense showed a TON of class in defeat. While upset he didn't win, he was thrilled for his fellow Louisiana buddy Robby Albarado. God will always reward that type of sportsmanship. Calvin-- YOU were the winner that day!
Racetrack Lenny
Monday, May 14, 2007
Puny Preakness Coming Up
I guess Street Sense scared everyone away. This Saturday's Preakness is shaping up to be a ho-hum affair. The 1-2-3 finishers in the Derby will go in the Preakness. Street Sense will probably go off as the favorite--figure even money or so. Hard Spun may go as the 2nd choice and Curlin will be right behind those two. Of the three, Curlin may be the better value and may turn out to be as good as his first 3 races indicated.
The rest of the expected field just seems outclassed. King of the Roxy, 2nd in the slow Santa Anita Derby, was distance-challenged at a mile and an eigth when overtaken by longshot Tiago. Now, the King will go a bit farther. Unless there is a pedestrian pace, which seems highly unlikely, I can't see it. Ditto for Flying First Class. Yes, Flying First Class won the Derby Trial; but, it was a very weak field. Flying First Class is the perfect miler--so, distance is a question here as well.
C.P. West, a Nick Zito trainee, is shipping in after having run 2nd in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct earlier this year. Finishing 2nd while drifting out badly is a sign of a tiring horse--and that was at a shorter distance than the Preakness. Another distance-challenged horse.
Mint Slewlep had a horrible trip in the Withers and managed to finish 4th in the Withers; however, had he won the Withers, it would have been a surprise.
If you're looking at the "horse for the course" angle, then you will like Xchanger. Xchanger won the Federico Tesio at Pimlico earlier this year. That field looked more like an optional/claiming race than it did a stakes race. In any event, Xchanger has been over the track, seemed to have liked it and showed some staying power. He is stepping way up in class; but, not a total throwout--especially in trifectas and superfectas.
The field should be announced by Thursday; so, stay tuned.
Over & out,
Racetrack Lenny
The rest of the expected field just seems outclassed. King of the Roxy, 2nd in the slow Santa Anita Derby, was distance-challenged at a mile and an eigth when overtaken by longshot Tiago. Now, the King will go a bit farther. Unless there is a pedestrian pace, which seems highly unlikely, I can't see it. Ditto for Flying First Class. Yes, Flying First Class won the Derby Trial; but, it was a very weak field. Flying First Class is the perfect miler--so, distance is a question here as well.
C.P. West, a Nick Zito trainee, is shipping in after having run 2nd in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct earlier this year. Finishing 2nd while drifting out badly is a sign of a tiring horse--and that was at a shorter distance than the Preakness. Another distance-challenged horse.
Mint Slewlep had a horrible trip in the Withers and managed to finish 4th in the Withers; however, had he won the Withers, it would have been a surprise.
If you're looking at the "horse for the course" angle, then you will like Xchanger. Xchanger won the Federico Tesio at Pimlico earlier this year. That field looked more like an optional/claiming race than it did a stakes race. In any event, Xchanger has been over the track, seemed to have liked it and showed some staying power. He is stepping way up in class; but, not a total throwout--especially in trifectas and superfectas.
The field should be announced by Thursday; so, stay tuned.
Over & out,
Racetrack Lenny
Saturday, May 5, 2007
Congratulations To Street Sense & Calvin Borel
Was Street Sense's rally from 19th position to win the Derby impressive or what? There's a reason they call Calvin Borel- Calvin Bo-rail. Borel gave Street Sense a rail skimming ride; didn't panic and began picking up horses one by one. He got by leader Hard Spun and went on to win by 2 lengths.
I could kick myself for not using Street Sense on top. The reason I threw him into the 2nd tier was I didn't think the rail would open up the way it did. You usually don't see that in a 20 horse field. I was happy that Hard Spun hung on for 2nd since I played him $10 WPS. So, an $84 return to avoid the total shutout.
I was really happy for Calvin Borel. He's been toiling forever at Churchill Downs and hadn't come close to winning the Derby. He was very emotional and said he wished his parents were still alive to have witnessed his win. He has every right to be proud.
How must trainer Todd Pletcher feel this evening? He went in fully loaded with 5 entrants--all of which had a solid shot at winning and Pletcher came up with the goose egg yet again. None of his horses even hit the top 5. Absolutely amazing. Scat Daddy looked like he was making a menacing move then flattened out. Any Given Saturday was 3rd at the head of the stretch and then back-pedaled from there. Circular Quay didn't show his closing kick. His others were nowhere to be found.
NoBiz Like ShoBiz vindicated my not being sold on him. Made a menacing move and then was flatter than a pancake.
Now it's off to the Preakness in 2 weeks. That should be a really good race. Street Sense is for real. Curlin did not run a bad race; and today's experience may build some stamina for May 19th. Hard Spun should be back since he was very competitive today. Despite Any Given Saturday's 8th place finish, I'm willing to give him another chance.
Congrats again to Calvin Bo-Rail!
Racetrack Lenny
I could kick myself for not using Street Sense on top. The reason I threw him into the 2nd tier was I didn't think the rail would open up the way it did. You usually don't see that in a 20 horse field. I was happy that Hard Spun hung on for 2nd since I played him $10 WPS. So, an $84 return to avoid the total shutout.
I was really happy for Calvin Borel. He's been toiling forever at Churchill Downs and hadn't come close to winning the Derby. He was very emotional and said he wished his parents were still alive to have witnessed his win. He has every right to be proud.
How must trainer Todd Pletcher feel this evening? He went in fully loaded with 5 entrants--all of which had a solid shot at winning and Pletcher came up with the goose egg yet again. None of his horses even hit the top 5. Absolutely amazing. Scat Daddy looked like he was making a menacing move then flattened out. Any Given Saturday was 3rd at the head of the stretch and then back-pedaled from there. Circular Quay didn't show his closing kick. His others were nowhere to be found.
NoBiz Like ShoBiz vindicated my not being sold on him. Made a menacing move and then was flatter than a pancake.
Now it's off to the Preakness in 2 weeks. That should be a really good race. Street Sense is for real. Curlin did not run a bad race; and today's experience may build some stamina for May 19th. Hard Spun should be back since he was very competitive today. Despite Any Given Saturday's 8th place finish, I'm willing to give him another chance.
Congrats again to Calvin Bo-Rail!
Racetrack Lenny
Friday, May 4, 2007
Derby Analysis---For What It's Worth
A tough field to handicap as this shapes up eerily similar to 2005 when Giacomo won the Derby at 50-1 odds. Despite the pundits telling us there is a stand-out, I can tell you there isn't one. You can make a case for just about anyone in the field, except for a few who are in the Derby to satisfy someone's ego.
I'll give you my thoughts on each in post position order. After each name, I'll show the Morning Line odds and jockey: Where applicable, I'll give you my thoughts on the horse's ability to perform on an "off" track. My horse traffic network in Kentucky report a delay of today's 11th race at Churchill Downs due to heavy rain. The track has been downgraded to "sloppy". Tomorrow's forecast calls for a 30% chance of showers. Churchill does have good drainage; but, I don't think it will be a lightning fast track. Analysis:
1. SEDGEFIELD- (50/1, Julien Leparoux) One of a few "ego trip" horses in this field. Sedgefield has never raced on dirt. He has had his races on turf or at Keeneland's polytrack. His best accounting was in the March 24th Lanes End (Grade 2) at Keeneland. Don't let the second place finish to Hard Spun fool you. Sedgefield actually lost ground through the lane. Post position 1 will help to the extent that it is nearest the turf course and perhaps Sedgefield will think the race is on turf. A toss out.
2. CURLIN- (7/2, Robby Albarado) Obviously loaded with a ton of talent. 3 wins out of 3 races by daylight margins is impressive. However, who has he raced against? Not this caliber of competition. He has yet to be looked in the eye and challenged. Having him as the lukewarm favorite is a terrible underlay. Not enough reward for the risk.
3. ZANJERO- (30/1, Shaun Bridgmohan) The "Wilko" of this group. He's always "there"; but, never gets quite "there". Tough to toss out of the trifecta and superfecta wagers; but, not someone to bet with any confidence on top.
4. STORM IN MAY- (30/1, Juan Leyva) 13 lifetime starts with 4 wins in the allowance and optional claiming ranks. Not the type of horse that gets the blood stirring on the first Saturday in May. He's done his best on turf. He did finish second to Curlin in the Arkansas Derby--but that was 10 lengths back. He was all out to hold the place spot by a 1/2 length. He was 3rd in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, missing by a head. But, take a look at the half-mile split: 51. That's trotter time. His speed figures are on the light side. All that being said, if the track comes up muddy or sloppy tomorrow, you may want to take a stab at Storm In May. He is sired by Relaunch who was a superior mudder--and won me $62 at Saratoga in the mid 1990's in the slop.
5. I'MAWILDANDCRAZYGUY- (50/1, Mark Guidry) The ultimate ego trip. He was 20th in earnings to get in and will likely be 20th to cross the finish line.
6. COWTOWN CAT- (20/1, Fernando Jara) Got a rail skimming ride in the Gotham (Grade 3) run at Aqueduct on 3/10. However, it was a dawdling pace with the half going in 49-2/5ths. He put the field to sleep in the Illinois Derby (Grade 2) on 4/7 and set the tepid pace. The half in that race was again, 49-2/5ths. He will not get such a boat race pace in tomorrow's Derby. Don't think he'll have the stamina needed for the mile and a quarter.
7. STREET SENSE- (4/1, Calvin Borel) Borel is sitting on a live wire. Street Sense may finally break the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Jinx of 0-23. He was impressive coming off the bench in the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3) where he was in a stirring stretch duel with Any Given Saturday. Street Sense prevailed by a nose and posted a 102 speed rating in the process. He missed by a nose in the totally lifeless Blue Grass (Grade 1) at Keeneland's polytrack. The 1/2 mile split in that race was an unbelievably slow 51-2/5ths. No one could close into that pedestrian walk. His last two workouts show he's ready. This will ultimately come down to what Calvin Borel can do. Borel loves to save ground and get a rail skimming ride. Post position 7 suits this horse well. Will Borel get trapped on the rail???? We'll see. Street Sense does have one trip over a sloppy track---and it wasn't a good one.
8. HARD SPUN- (15/1, Mario Pino) Has been gradually building up from 5-1/2 F to a 1-1/8th miles. An impressive win at the Fairgrounds in the LeCompte (Grade 3) where he won for fun at a mile. He regressed a bit in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on 2/19. He made a strong middle move and had nothing left at the end. He ran well in the Lanes End (Grade 2) on Keeneland's polytrack winning by 3 widening lenghts. With both Danzig and Turkoman in his bloodlines, I think distance isn't a problem. I like the fact that he had a one mile workout on 4/23. He did have a 5 furlong workout on 4/30 in a perhaps too fast 57-3/5ths; but, I really like this horse. A bonus is that on a sloppy track as a 2 year old, he won for fun.
9. LIQUIDITY- (30/1, David Flores) A west coast shipper whose speed figures are on the downside. He appears to be in a downward form cycle and may have already peaked. He is a money-burner. He's been lower than 3-1 in his last three starts with no wins. He always looks like he's coming like a freight train but hangs each time.
10. TEUFLESBERG- (30/1, Stewart Elliott) 15 lifetime starts; so, lots of experience. He's one of those annoying "in & out" horses that can throw in a great race or a dismal one. He had things all his way in the slow Blue Grass on 4/14 and got nailed by 3 others in a blanket finish. If you can't hold on at a mile and an eighth after a 51 second half..... Despite this, he does have a triple digit speed figure of 100 in the Southwest Stakes where he wired the field and won at 23/1. He has won on a sloppy track; although, the distance was 6 furlongs. He had a great workout on 4/29. He has the look of a live longshot depending on which Teuflesberg shows up tomorrow.
11. BWANA BULL- (50/1, Javier Castellano) Mediocre speed figures and winning in allowance races equals defeat tomorrow.
12. NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ- (8/1, Cornelio Velasquez) A lot of folks are on this little guy's bandwagon. He showed a lot of promise as a 2 year old and ended his 2 year old season with a 6 length score in the Remsen (Grade 2) at Aqueduct last November. He came off the bench on 2/3 in the Holy Bull (Grade 3) at Gulfstream and was all out to win at 2/5 odds. He regressed in the Fountain of Youth (Grade 2) at Gulfstream on 3/3. Trainer Barclay Tagg (he of Funny Cide fame) went to blinkers on and plugged ears to have NoBiz concentrate and not be distracted. He rewarded that change with a win in the Wood Memorial (Grade 1) at Aqueduct on 4/7. Yes, he did repel a number of challenges throughout that race--I was there. However, Sightseeing was getting to him at the end and NoBiz Like ShoBiz was saved by the wire. His speed figures are remarkably consistent in the mid to high 90's. The "Funny Cide" connection may get some sentimentalists overbetting this horse and he could go off at 6/1 or so. NoBiz is also skittish with crowd noise. While ear plugs helped at the Wood Memorial, there were about 7,000 fans in attendance at beautiful Aqueduct that day. There isn't enough cotton in the South to keep the roar of 140,000 people out of one's ears. I'm not sold.
13. SAM P- (20/1, Ramon Dominguez) This is another live longshot. He has raced against many of these rivals and has finished no worse than 5th against them. He needs a good trip and that's always a problem with a cavalry charge for a field. If he can better his 99 speed rating in the RB Lewis (Grade 2) at Santa Anita, he could just hang around to be in the exotic bets.
14. SCAT DADDY- (10/1, Edgar Prado) Won both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby posting 95 and 98 speed ratings in the process. He's a grinder type in which he stalks and then gradually takes command. He doesn't blow anybody's doors off; but, he just keeps coming. Post 14 does not help. In the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, he was in a field of 14 and had to steady at the first turn in traffic. The end result was a 4th place finish--15 lenghts back. Trip will be the key. I think he'll go off at 15/1 or so. Can't toss him out.
15. TIAGO- (15/1, Mike Smith) Half-brother to the 2005 Derby winner Giacomo, he just won the Santa Anita Derby closing from out of the clouds at 29/1. In the process, he posted his best speed figure (100). I think that effort will make him bounce here. He's a notch below these and 15/1 isn't very enticing. What he does have going for him is the outside post which is ideal for a one run closer.
16. CIRCULAR QUAY- (8/1, John Velasquez) Johnny V. had several choices here and he picked Circular Quay. This one-run closer needs a quick pace to close into. He can come from far back when needed and the outside post helps this closer. He posted a sensational speed rating (102) on 3/10 in the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher decided to rest him until tomorrow instead of getting another race in him. I'm fearing a bounce off that last effort. He is sired by Thunder Gulch who won the 1995 Derby at 25/1.
17. STORMELLO- (30/1, Kent Desormeaux) Couldn't hang on in last two races. Horse is not easy to rate and wants to have the lead; that will be tough from post 17. Too much to overcome.
18. ANY GIVEN SATURDAY- (12/1, Garrett Gomez) Sensational race against Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby where he came up short a nose. He expectedly bounced in the Wood Memorial. However, his workouts suggest he's ready and I'm expecting this stalker to be very much alive at the end.
19. DOMINICAN- (20/1, Rafael Bejarano) A live longshot one-run closer. Has a very strong finishing kick but needs a hot pace to close into. While the post position keeps him out of trouble early, his style is to get early position, fall back some during the race and then unleash a good closing kick. Wouldn't be a surprise and a stab on him at 20/1 or better wouldn't get you laughed at.
20. GREAT HUNTER- (15/1, Corey Nakatani) A versatile horse who can stalk or close from way back. He's never gone off higher than 12/1 in his 9 lifetime starts. Post 20 is a killer for him because when he does close, he's not so far behind that he has to make up a ton of ground. He's a grinder type horse.
The Picks:
Tough race to pick. I believe the following 3 will be the win candidates: Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday.
The 2nd tier will be: Street Sense, Circular Quay, Dominican.
Bets:
$2 Exacta Wheel: Hard Spun/Scat Daddy/Any Given Saturday on top of Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday, Street Sense, Circular Quay, Dominican.
$1 Trifecta Wheel: Hard Spun/Any Given Saturday over Scat Daddy/Street Sense/Hard Spun/Any Given Saturday over Dominican/Circular Quay.
$2 WPS: Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday
Longshot Stab: $2 W- Teuflesberg and Storm In May
$10 WPS: Hard Spun
"Hard Spun Wins Derby"
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
I'll give you my thoughts on each in post position order. After each name, I'll show the Morning Line odds and jockey: Where applicable, I'll give you my thoughts on the horse's ability to perform on an "off" track. My horse traffic network in Kentucky report a delay of today's 11th race at Churchill Downs due to heavy rain. The track has been downgraded to "sloppy". Tomorrow's forecast calls for a 30% chance of showers. Churchill does have good drainage; but, I don't think it will be a lightning fast track. Analysis:
1. SEDGEFIELD- (50/1, Julien Leparoux) One of a few "ego trip" horses in this field. Sedgefield has never raced on dirt. He has had his races on turf or at Keeneland's polytrack. His best accounting was in the March 24th Lanes End (Grade 2) at Keeneland. Don't let the second place finish to Hard Spun fool you. Sedgefield actually lost ground through the lane. Post position 1 will help to the extent that it is nearest the turf course and perhaps Sedgefield will think the race is on turf. A toss out.
2. CURLIN- (7/2, Robby Albarado) Obviously loaded with a ton of talent. 3 wins out of 3 races by daylight margins is impressive. However, who has he raced against? Not this caliber of competition. He has yet to be looked in the eye and challenged. Having him as the lukewarm favorite is a terrible underlay. Not enough reward for the risk.
3. ZANJERO- (30/1, Shaun Bridgmohan) The "Wilko" of this group. He's always "there"; but, never gets quite "there". Tough to toss out of the trifecta and superfecta wagers; but, not someone to bet with any confidence on top.
4. STORM IN MAY- (30/1, Juan Leyva) 13 lifetime starts with 4 wins in the allowance and optional claiming ranks. Not the type of horse that gets the blood stirring on the first Saturday in May. He's done his best on turf. He did finish second to Curlin in the Arkansas Derby--but that was 10 lengths back. He was all out to hold the place spot by a 1/2 length. He was 3rd in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, missing by a head. But, take a look at the half-mile split: 51. That's trotter time. His speed figures are on the light side. All that being said, if the track comes up muddy or sloppy tomorrow, you may want to take a stab at Storm In May. He is sired by Relaunch who was a superior mudder--and won me $62 at Saratoga in the mid 1990's in the slop.
5. I'MAWILDANDCRAZYGUY- (50/1, Mark Guidry) The ultimate ego trip. He was 20th in earnings to get in and will likely be 20th to cross the finish line.
6. COWTOWN CAT- (20/1, Fernando Jara) Got a rail skimming ride in the Gotham (Grade 3) run at Aqueduct on 3/10. However, it was a dawdling pace with the half going in 49-2/5ths. He put the field to sleep in the Illinois Derby (Grade 2) on 4/7 and set the tepid pace. The half in that race was again, 49-2/5ths. He will not get such a boat race pace in tomorrow's Derby. Don't think he'll have the stamina needed for the mile and a quarter.
7. STREET SENSE- (4/1, Calvin Borel) Borel is sitting on a live wire. Street Sense may finally break the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Jinx of 0-23. He was impressive coming off the bench in the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3) where he was in a stirring stretch duel with Any Given Saturday. Street Sense prevailed by a nose and posted a 102 speed rating in the process. He missed by a nose in the totally lifeless Blue Grass (Grade 1) at Keeneland's polytrack. The 1/2 mile split in that race was an unbelievably slow 51-2/5ths. No one could close into that pedestrian walk. His last two workouts show he's ready. This will ultimately come down to what Calvin Borel can do. Borel loves to save ground and get a rail skimming ride. Post position 7 suits this horse well. Will Borel get trapped on the rail???? We'll see. Street Sense does have one trip over a sloppy track---and it wasn't a good one.
8. HARD SPUN- (15/1, Mario Pino) Has been gradually building up from 5-1/2 F to a 1-1/8th miles. An impressive win at the Fairgrounds in the LeCompte (Grade 3) where he won for fun at a mile. He regressed a bit in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on 2/19. He made a strong middle move and had nothing left at the end. He ran well in the Lanes End (Grade 2) on Keeneland's polytrack winning by 3 widening lenghts. With both Danzig and Turkoman in his bloodlines, I think distance isn't a problem. I like the fact that he had a one mile workout on 4/23. He did have a 5 furlong workout on 4/30 in a perhaps too fast 57-3/5ths; but, I really like this horse. A bonus is that on a sloppy track as a 2 year old, he won for fun.
9. LIQUIDITY- (30/1, David Flores) A west coast shipper whose speed figures are on the downside. He appears to be in a downward form cycle and may have already peaked. He is a money-burner. He's been lower than 3-1 in his last three starts with no wins. He always looks like he's coming like a freight train but hangs each time.
10. TEUFLESBERG- (30/1, Stewart Elliott) 15 lifetime starts; so, lots of experience. He's one of those annoying "in & out" horses that can throw in a great race or a dismal one. He had things all his way in the slow Blue Grass on 4/14 and got nailed by 3 others in a blanket finish. If you can't hold on at a mile and an eighth after a 51 second half..... Despite this, he does have a triple digit speed figure of 100 in the Southwest Stakes where he wired the field and won at 23/1. He has won on a sloppy track; although, the distance was 6 furlongs. He had a great workout on 4/29. He has the look of a live longshot depending on which Teuflesberg shows up tomorrow.
11. BWANA BULL- (50/1, Javier Castellano) Mediocre speed figures and winning in allowance races equals defeat tomorrow.
12. NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ- (8/1, Cornelio Velasquez) A lot of folks are on this little guy's bandwagon. He showed a lot of promise as a 2 year old and ended his 2 year old season with a 6 length score in the Remsen (Grade 2) at Aqueduct last November. He came off the bench on 2/3 in the Holy Bull (Grade 3) at Gulfstream and was all out to win at 2/5 odds. He regressed in the Fountain of Youth (Grade 2) at Gulfstream on 3/3. Trainer Barclay Tagg (he of Funny Cide fame) went to blinkers on and plugged ears to have NoBiz concentrate and not be distracted. He rewarded that change with a win in the Wood Memorial (Grade 1) at Aqueduct on 4/7. Yes, he did repel a number of challenges throughout that race--I was there. However, Sightseeing was getting to him at the end and NoBiz Like ShoBiz was saved by the wire. His speed figures are remarkably consistent in the mid to high 90's. The "Funny Cide" connection may get some sentimentalists overbetting this horse and he could go off at 6/1 or so. NoBiz is also skittish with crowd noise. While ear plugs helped at the Wood Memorial, there were about 7,000 fans in attendance at beautiful Aqueduct that day. There isn't enough cotton in the South to keep the roar of 140,000 people out of one's ears. I'm not sold.
13. SAM P- (20/1, Ramon Dominguez) This is another live longshot. He has raced against many of these rivals and has finished no worse than 5th against them. He needs a good trip and that's always a problem with a cavalry charge for a field. If he can better his 99 speed rating in the RB Lewis (Grade 2) at Santa Anita, he could just hang around to be in the exotic bets.
14. SCAT DADDY- (10/1, Edgar Prado) Won both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby posting 95 and 98 speed ratings in the process. He's a grinder type in which he stalks and then gradually takes command. He doesn't blow anybody's doors off; but, he just keeps coming. Post 14 does not help. In the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, he was in a field of 14 and had to steady at the first turn in traffic. The end result was a 4th place finish--15 lenghts back. Trip will be the key. I think he'll go off at 15/1 or so. Can't toss him out.
15. TIAGO- (15/1, Mike Smith) Half-brother to the 2005 Derby winner Giacomo, he just won the Santa Anita Derby closing from out of the clouds at 29/1. In the process, he posted his best speed figure (100). I think that effort will make him bounce here. He's a notch below these and 15/1 isn't very enticing. What he does have going for him is the outside post which is ideal for a one run closer.
16. CIRCULAR QUAY- (8/1, John Velasquez) Johnny V. had several choices here and he picked Circular Quay. This one-run closer needs a quick pace to close into. He can come from far back when needed and the outside post helps this closer. He posted a sensational speed rating (102) on 3/10 in the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher decided to rest him until tomorrow instead of getting another race in him. I'm fearing a bounce off that last effort. He is sired by Thunder Gulch who won the 1995 Derby at 25/1.
17. STORMELLO- (30/1, Kent Desormeaux) Couldn't hang on in last two races. Horse is not easy to rate and wants to have the lead; that will be tough from post 17. Too much to overcome.
18. ANY GIVEN SATURDAY- (12/1, Garrett Gomez) Sensational race against Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby where he came up short a nose. He expectedly bounced in the Wood Memorial. However, his workouts suggest he's ready and I'm expecting this stalker to be very much alive at the end.
19. DOMINICAN- (20/1, Rafael Bejarano) A live longshot one-run closer. Has a very strong finishing kick but needs a hot pace to close into. While the post position keeps him out of trouble early, his style is to get early position, fall back some during the race and then unleash a good closing kick. Wouldn't be a surprise and a stab on him at 20/1 or better wouldn't get you laughed at.
20. GREAT HUNTER- (15/1, Corey Nakatani) A versatile horse who can stalk or close from way back. He's never gone off higher than 12/1 in his 9 lifetime starts. Post 20 is a killer for him because when he does close, he's not so far behind that he has to make up a ton of ground. He's a grinder type horse.
The Picks:
Tough race to pick. I believe the following 3 will be the win candidates: Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday.
The 2nd tier will be: Street Sense, Circular Quay, Dominican.
Bets:
$2 Exacta Wheel: Hard Spun/Scat Daddy/Any Given Saturday on top of Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday, Street Sense, Circular Quay, Dominican.
$1 Trifecta Wheel: Hard Spun/Any Given Saturday over Scat Daddy/Street Sense/Hard Spun/Any Given Saturday over Dominican/Circular Quay.
$2 WPS: Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday
Longshot Stab: $2 W- Teuflesberg and Storm In May
$10 WPS: Hard Spun
"Hard Spun Wins Derby"
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Nothing Settled
Today's action included the Blue Grass Stakes from Keeneland and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn.
In the Blue Grass, run on the all-weather polytrack, 8/1 Dominican (Rafael Bejarano) closed into a totally lifeless pace to prevail by a nose over EVEN money favorite, Street Sense (Calvin Borel). This was a boat race. The opening quarter went in 26, the half in 51-2/5ths. I've seen trotters run faster. 10/1 Teuflesberg (Edgar Prado) was my pick. He led right up to the very end when there was a blanket photo finish and Teuflesberg's nose was 4th on the camera. If you can't hang on through dawdling fractions, you're not going to win roses on May 5th. Street Sense can be forgiven for his effort. Off his last grueling race, I expected some regression. Today, he had no pace to run into and he still managed to just miss by a nose. Let's see how they come out. The Keeneland polytrack is a very deep and tiring surface; so, the times are deceiving. Great Hunter 9/5 with Corey Nakatani had a legit excuse. He was shut off and had to take sharply. That cost him valuable ground and he finished 3 lenghts back in 5th.
In the Arkansas Derby, 4/5 favorite Curlin (Robby Albarado) put on quite a show winning by 10 widening lenghts--and making it seem easy. 30/1 longshot Storm In May (Juan Leyva) got a suck-up second closing from far back to just get by the tiring Deadly Dealer 2/1 with John Velasquez. Flying First Class had a jockey change to Terry Thompson and it made no difference as he finished a tiring 6th after making a menacing middle move. Another Derby hopeful, Officer Rocket 8/1 with Luis Quinonez lost all chance with a horrible beginning from which he never recovered.
So, Curlin appears to be for real. We'll see if Street Sense's dull performance was due to the slow time and tiring track.
All for now, til next time.
Racetrack Lenny
In the Blue Grass, run on the all-weather polytrack, 8/1 Dominican (Rafael Bejarano) closed into a totally lifeless pace to prevail by a nose over EVEN money favorite, Street Sense (Calvin Borel). This was a boat race. The opening quarter went in 26, the half in 51-2/5ths. I've seen trotters run faster. 10/1 Teuflesberg (Edgar Prado) was my pick. He led right up to the very end when there was a blanket photo finish and Teuflesberg's nose was 4th on the camera. If you can't hang on through dawdling fractions, you're not going to win roses on May 5th. Street Sense can be forgiven for his effort. Off his last grueling race, I expected some regression. Today, he had no pace to run into and he still managed to just miss by a nose. Let's see how they come out. The Keeneland polytrack is a very deep and tiring surface; so, the times are deceiving. Great Hunter 9/5 with Corey Nakatani had a legit excuse. He was shut off and had to take sharply. That cost him valuable ground and he finished 3 lenghts back in 5th.
In the Arkansas Derby, 4/5 favorite Curlin (Robby Albarado) put on quite a show winning by 10 widening lenghts--and making it seem easy. 30/1 longshot Storm In May (Juan Leyva) got a suck-up second closing from far back to just get by the tiring Deadly Dealer 2/1 with John Velasquez. Flying First Class had a jockey change to Terry Thompson and it made no difference as he finished a tiring 6th after making a menacing middle move. Another Derby hopeful, Officer Rocket 8/1 with Luis Quinonez lost all chance with a horrible beginning from which he never recovered.
So, Curlin appears to be for real. We'll see if Street Sense's dull performance was due to the slow time and tiring track.
All for now, til next time.
Racetrack Lenny
Sunday, April 8, 2007
Less Than A Month To Go.....
With now less than a month to go to the Run for the Roses, the picture is as foggy as ever. 4 major prep races were run yesterday and I have concluded the Derby is a pretty wide-open affair. Could we have a 5-1 favorite this year? It's quite possible.
Santa Anita Derby: Run at Santa Anita Park at 1-1/8 miles, the Santa Anita came up with one of the weakest fields in recent memory. The lukewarm 5/2 favorite, Sam P. turned in a rather dull effort finishing 3rd beaten by about 3 lengths. Derby hopeful, King of the Roxy, whose ability to get the distance was suspect, just got nailed at the wire by a surging Tiago, who rallied from last to first at 25/1. Tiago is a half-brother to Giacomo and is looking to be Derby-bound; that is if his earnings get him in. Liquidity turned in yet another dull effort. If he couldn't do it yesterday, there's not much to make me think he'll do it on May 5th.
Illinois Derby: Run at Hawthorne at 1-1/8 miles, favorite Cobalt Blue (Victor Espinoza), may not have cared for the deeper racing surface or the cold weather by finishing a well-beaten 7th--missing by 18 lengths. It was a dreadful effort and he never threatened. Instead, Cowtown Cat, ridden by Fernando Jara (he of Jazil fame) wired the field to win by a solid 2 lenghts. Trainer Todd Pletcher decided to scratch Cowtown Cat out of the Wood Memorial and run him at Hawthorne. Obviously, a good decision. However, before you get too excited about Cowtown Cat, the Illinois Derby was run in 1:51:2/5ths--a full two seconds slower than the Wood. That time won't win on Derby day. Love Dubai, shipped to Hawthorne from Great Britain to run in the Illinois Derby. He may love Dubai; but, he sure didn't love Hawthorne--a race his owners/trainer would just as soon forget. He finished last beaten better than 30 lenghts being outrun at every call. Yuck.
Bay Shore Stakes: Run at 7 furlongs at Aqueduct (which I attended on a cold day with snow flurries), the Bay Shore featured Santa Anita and Bobby Frankel trained Les Grands Trois, who was sent off at 3/5 and just managed to hang on for 3rd. Instead, the decision went to Bill Place off at 5/2. Under a masterful ride by Cornelio Velazquez, Bill Place just caught the very stubborn HobbitontheRocks, a 13/1 longshot just at the wire--which was lucky for me. Having the $57.50 exacta was kind of nice. I don't think the Derby winner was in the Bay Shore.
Wood Memorial: Run at Aqueduct at 1-1/8 miles, this was easily THE prep race of the weekend. It was a showdown between NoBiz Like ShoBiz, under Cornelio Velasquez, at 3/5 and Any Given Saturday, under John Velasquez at 8/5. In the battle of the Velasquez's; it was Cornelio who prevailed in a very exciting race. Flashstorm, John Jacinto up, at 43/1 set a wicked pace and suckered my pick, Summer Doldrums, into that hot pace. NoBiz was sitting in 3rd biding his time with Any Given Saturday biding his time in 4th. At the 3/4 pole, the Velasquez war was on in earnest. NoBiz Like ShoBiz had the rail and Any Given Saturday came up on the outside and looked him right in the eye. They raced as a team until there was 1/16th to go and NoBiz started to edge away. However, who was flying on the outside, 18/1 outsider Sightseeing. A little extra ground and Sightseeing would have been the winner.
Thoughts on the Wood: Barclay Tagg's decision to put blinkers on and plug NoBiz Like ShoBiz ears with cotton worked like a charm. I didn't like Any Given Saturday in this one particular race only because he had run his eyeballs out running against Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby. Coming back 3 weeks later, I expected a bit of a bounce and that is exactly what happened. It's a shame because I think Any Given Saturday is sitting on a huge race next time. However, he doesn't have enough earnings to have him in the top 20 for Derby day--shame on Todd Pletcher for letting that happen. If Any Given Saturday gets in, he's my pick. I thought Sightseeing was a gift at 18/1 and so I wheeled him on top and on the bottom. He got the bottom half of the exacta ticket and I was rewarded with a $26.80 payoff. Shug McGaughey says Sightseeing is not looking to tour Churchill Downs. Too bad.
I thought Summer Doldrums was a cut below these; but, I expected the speed duel to be between Flashstorm, Any Given Saturday and NoBiz Like ShoBiz. I never expected Mike Luzzi to be up prompting the pace. Maybe the horse was difficult to rate; but, I'd have a "come to Jesus" talk with Mike Luzzi. Summer Doldrums reminds me of Scrappy T. A cut below; but, on his best dangerous--look out if he enters the Preakness.
All for now. May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
Santa Anita Derby: Run at Santa Anita Park at 1-1/8 miles, the Santa Anita came up with one of the weakest fields in recent memory. The lukewarm 5/2 favorite, Sam P. turned in a rather dull effort finishing 3rd beaten by about 3 lengths. Derby hopeful, King of the Roxy, whose ability to get the distance was suspect, just got nailed at the wire by a surging Tiago, who rallied from last to first at 25/1. Tiago is a half-brother to Giacomo and is looking to be Derby-bound; that is if his earnings get him in. Liquidity turned in yet another dull effort. If he couldn't do it yesterday, there's not much to make me think he'll do it on May 5th.
Illinois Derby: Run at Hawthorne at 1-1/8 miles, favorite Cobalt Blue (Victor Espinoza), may not have cared for the deeper racing surface or the cold weather by finishing a well-beaten 7th--missing by 18 lengths. It was a dreadful effort and he never threatened. Instead, Cowtown Cat, ridden by Fernando Jara (he of Jazil fame) wired the field to win by a solid 2 lenghts. Trainer Todd Pletcher decided to scratch Cowtown Cat out of the Wood Memorial and run him at Hawthorne. Obviously, a good decision. However, before you get too excited about Cowtown Cat, the Illinois Derby was run in 1:51:2/5ths--a full two seconds slower than the Wood. That time won't win on Derby day. Love Dubai, shipped to Hawthorne from Great Britain to run in the Illinois Derby. He may love Dubai; but, he sure didn't love Hawthorne--a race his owners/trainer would just as soon forget. He finished last beaten better than 30 lenghts being outrun at every call. Yuck.
Bay Shore Stakes: Run at 7 furlongs at Aqueduct (which I attended on a cold day with snow flurries), the Bay Shore featured Santa Anita and Bobby Frankel trained Les Grands Trois, who was sent off at 3/5 and just managed to hang on for 3rd. Instead, the decision went to Bill Place off at 5/2. Under a masterful ride by Cornelio Velazquez, Bill Place just caught the very stubborn HobbitontheRocks, a 13/1 longshot just at the wire--which was lucky for me. Having the $57.50 exacta was kind of nice. I don't think the Derby winner was in the Bay Shore.
Wood Memorial: Run at Aqueduct at 1-1/8 miles, this was easily THE prep race of the weekend. It was a showdown between NoBiz Like ShoBiz, under Cornelio Velasquez, at 3/5 and Any Given Saturday, under John Velasquez at 8/5. In the battle of the Velasquez's; it was Cornelio who prevailed in a very exciting race. Flashstorm, John Jacinto up, at 43/1 set a wicked pace and suckered my pick, Summer Doldrums, into that hot pace. NoBiz was sitting in 3rd biding his time with Any Given Saturday biding his time in 4th. At the 3/4 pole, the Velasquez war was on in earnest. NoBiz Like ShoBiz had the rail and Any Given Saturday came up on the outside and looked him right in the eye. They raced as a team until there was 1/16th to go and NoBiz started to edge away. However, who was flying on the outside, 18/1 outsider Sightseeing. A little extra ground and Sightseeing would have been the winner.
Thoughts on the Wood: Barclay Tagg's decision to put blinkers on and plug NoBiz Like ShoBiz ears with cotton worked like a charm. I didn't like Any Given Saturday in this one particular race only because he had run his eyeballs out running against Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby. Coming back 3 weeks later, I expected a bit of a bounce and that is exactly what happened. It's a shame because I think Any Given Saturday is sitting on a huge race next time. However, he doesn't have enough earnings to have him in the top 20 for Derby day--shame on Todd Pletcher for letting that happen. If Any Given Saturday gets in, he's my pick. I thought Sightseeing was a gift at 18/1 and so I wheeled him on top and on the bottom. He got the bottom half of the exacta ticket and I was rewarded with a $26.80 payoff. Shug McGaughey says Sightseeing is not looking to tour Churchill Downs. Too bad.
I thought Summer Doldrums was a cut below these; but, I expected the speed duel to be between Flashstorm, Any Given Saturday and NoBiz Like ShoBiz. I never expected Mike Luzzi to be up prompting the pace. Maybe the horse was difficult to rate; but, I'd have a "come to Jesus" talk with Mike Luzzi. Summer Doldrums reminds me of Scrappy T. A cut below; but, on his best dangerous--look out if he enters the Preakness.
All for now. May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
Sunday, April 1, 2007
Florida Derby
Well, the Derby picture is getting a little clearer--it cost me $30 to see the picture!
I used Adore the Gold (4-1, Edgar Prado); Chelokee (6-1, Ramon Dominguez) and BirdBirdIsTheWord (19-1, Manoel Cruz). Scat Daddy, the 2-1 favorite, won the race pretty impressively with second choice Notional getting 2nd. Chelokee was trapped at the rail, saw a hole opening, decided to go through only to have the hole close and have Chelokee take up sharply. He lost all chance and closed well to get third. So, what did we learn from yesterday's race:
1. This year's crop of three year olds are running truer to form than usual. So, it is tough to throw out favorites in each stakes race.
2. Scat Daddy can rate pretty well and is now battle tested. Hopefully, he's not a "one racetrack" horse. He's done well at Gulfstream, how will he do elsewhere?
3. Notional was running well out West and did not run poorly yesterday. Keep an eye on his workout times.
4. Adore The Gold is a one-mile horse. He cannot get the distance and I've thrown him out of the Derby mix.
5. Stormello, who had been running well, inexplicably tired badly. Maybe ill?
6. BirdBirdIsTheWord should forget the Derby. He is an allowance horse, at best.
Stay tuned for next week's Bay Shore Stakes and the Wood Memorial, both at Aqueduct on Holy Saturday (4/7). I, of course, will be in attendance.
May the horse be with you,
The prognosticator formerly known as Racetrack Lenny
I used Adore the Gold (4-1, Edgar Prado); Chelokee (6-1, Ramon Dominguez) and BirdBirdIsTheWord (19-1, Manoel Cruz). Scat Daddy, the 2-1 favorite, won the race pretty impressively with second choice Notional getting 2nd. Chelokee was trapped at the rail, saw a hole opening, decided to go through only to have the hole close and have Chelokee take up sharply. He lost all chance and closed well to get third. So, what did we learn from yesterday's race:
1. This year's crop of three year olds are running truer to form than usual. So, it is tough to throw out favorites in each stakes race.
2. Scat Daddy can rate pretty well and is now battle tested. Hopefully, he's not a "one racetrack" horse. He's done well at Gulfstream, how will he do elsewhere?
3. Notional was running well out West and did not run poorly yesterday. Keep an eye on his workout times.
4. Adore The Gold is a one-mile horse. He cannot get the distance and I've thrown him out of the Derby mix.
5. Stormello, who had been running well, inexplicably tired badly. Maybe ill?
6. BirdBirdIsTheWord should forget the Derby. He is an allowance horse, at best.
Stay tuned for next week's Bay Shore Stakes and the Wood Memorial, both at Aqueduct on Holy Saturday (4/7). I, of course, will be in attendance.
May the horse be with you,
The prognosticator formerly known as Racetrack Lenny
Saturday, March 24, 2007
Thoughts On The Lane' s End
Well, I knew the Lane's End (Grade 2 at a mile and an eighth) was being run at Turfway Park today; but, I didn't focus on it and decided to just watch instead. I don't think we saw the Derby winner at Turfway today.
Hard Spun (Mario Pino) was the morning line favorite; but, got sent off as the 5/2 second choice behind Twilight Meteor (Edgar Prado), sent off also at 5/2. Poor Edgar, he had a favorite, just like last week, that backed up through the lane to finish out of the money. Edgar--what's going on??? Hard Spun was never far off the blistering pace set by longshot Starbase (Terry Thompson). After a quarter in 22-3/5ths and a half in 47-1/5th; it was no wonder Starbase was nowhere to be found at the end. The reason is when you run such quick fractions on a spongy PolyTrack surface, it is very tiring. Thus, Hard Spun stalking the pace in 3rd before taking command at the top of the stretch and then winning by 3 widening lenghts looked impressive. 12-1 Sedgefield (Rafael Bejarano) closed from mid-pack to get 2nd; while 13-1 Joe Got Even (Miguel Mena) closed from far back to take 3rd.
Because of the very forgiving surfact at Turfway Park, it's hard to get excited about Hard Spun. However, if you're looking for a potential closer (and you know I love closers), Joe Got Even closed impressively. I just would like to see it on a dirt surface versus the sponge-like goo that is the PolyTrack.
May the horse be with you,
The Artist Formerly Known as Racetrack Lenny
Hard Spun (Mario Pino) was the morning line favorite; but, got sent off as the 5/2 second choice behind Twilight Meteor (Edgar Prado), sent off also at 5/2. Poor Edgar, he had a favorite, just like last week, that backed up through the lane to finish out of the money. Edgar--what's going on??? Hard Spun was never far off the blistering pace set by longshot Starbase (Terry Thompson). After a quarter in 22-3/5ths and a half in 47-1/5th; it was no wonder Starbase was nowhere to be found at the end. The reason is when you run such quick fractions on a spongy PolyTrack surface, it is very tiring. Thus, Hard Spun stalking the pace in 3rd before taking command at the top of the stretch and then winning by 3 widening lenghts looked impressive. 12-1 Sedgefield (Rafael Bejarano) closed from mid-pack to get 2nd; while 13-1 Joe Got Even (Miguel Mena) closed from far back to take 3rd.
Because of the very forgiving surfact at Turfway Park, it's hard to get excited about Hard Spun. However, if you're looking for a potential closer (and you know I love closers), Joe Got Even closed impressively. I just would like to see it on a dirt surface versus the sponge-like goo that is the PolyTrack.
May the horse be with you,
The Artist Formerly Known as Racetrack Lenny
Saturday, March 17, 2007
And The Results Are? Not Too Green!
Now I know why I still work for a living! An interesting day that made the Derby stand-out even murkier than it already is.
The Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby was won by 6/5 Street Sense ridden by Calvin Borel. Borel, who is known as an "on the throttle" jockey, actually stalked the pace and was all out to have Street Sense prevail by the scantest of noses over 3/5 favorite Any Given Saturday. I wasn't crazy about Street Sense because of the long layoff; but, he was impressive. Now we know that both Street Sense and Any Given Saturday have a lot of fight in them. Their stretch duel brought back memories of Affirmed and Alydar, that's how close it was. Could Street Sense break the Breeder's Cup Juvenile jinx? Maybe. Distinguished Kiss, ridden by Jeffrey Sanchez, was far, far back early and closed to get a "suck-up" 3rd. He didn't show enough closing power to me to make me want to get nuts about him for the Derby. We'll now need to see if this tough race took anything out of the top 2.
The Grade 3 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park was won by 5/2 Curlin ridden by Robby Albarado. He was much the best winning with authority by 5 widening lengths. Officer Rocket, sent off at 3/1, ran well to get second. My pick, Teuflesberg, ridden by Stewart Elliott, finished 3rd at 5/1. He came out flat-footed out of the gate and perhaps getting him hustled up into contention may have taken some starch out of him. Favorite Flying First Class, ridden by Edgar Prado, got into a speed duel with XChanger (John Jacinto, up) and paid the price as he flew coach down the stretch. He beat 70/1 Sumac. Curlin sure looked good and he made it look easy--look out.
The Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita had one scratch in Tap It Light, making for a 5 horse field. Favorite Air Commander, 6/5 with Garrett Gomez and Cobalt Blue, 2/1 with Victor Espinoza put on quite a show with the nod going to Cobalt Blue by 2 lenghts. Level Red, 4/1 with Aaron Gryder rounded out the triple. Todd Pletcher's Grapelli, 9/2 with Richard Migliore is likely to be left in the barn come Derby day. He finished last in a very pedestrian effort.
Stay tuned for upcoming Prep races and the chance to lose more money!
May the horse be with you!
The Artist Formerly Known as Racetrack Lenny
The Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby was won by 6/5 Street Sense ridden by Calvin Borel. Borel, who is known as an "on the throttle" jockey, actually stalked the pace and was all out to have Street Sense prevail by the scantest of noses over 3/5 favorite Any Given Saturday. I wasn't crazy about Street Sense because of the long layoff; but, he was impressive. Now we know that both Street Sense and Any Given Saturday have a lot of fight in them. Their stretch duel brought back memories of Affirmed and Alydar, that's how close it was. Could Street Sense break the Breeder's Cup Juvenile jinx? Maybe. Distinguished Kiss, ridden by Jeffrey Sanchez, was far, far back early and closed to get a "suck-up" 3rd. He didn't show enough closing power to me to make me want to get nuts about him for the Derby. We'll now need to see if this tough race took anything out of the top 2.
The Grade 3 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park was won by 5/2 Curlin ridden by Robby Albarado. He was much the best winning with authority by 5 widening lengths. Officer Rocket, sent off at 3/1, ran well to get second. My pick, Teuflesberg, ridden by Stewart Elliott, finished 3rd at 5/1. He came out flat-footed out of the gate and perhaps getting him hustled up into contention may have taken some starch out of him. Favorite Flying First Class, ridden by Edgar Prado, got into a speed duel with XChanger (John Jacinto, up) and paid the price as he flew coach down the stretch. He beat 70/1 Sumac. Curlin sure looked good and he made it look easy--look out.
The Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita had one scratch in Tap It Light, making for a 5 horse field. Favorite Air Commander, 6/5 with Garrett Gomez and Cobalt Blue, 2/1 with Victor Espinoza put on quite a show with the nod going to Cobalt Blue by 2 lenghts. Level Red, 4/1 with Aaron Gryder rounded out the triple. Todd Pletcher's Grapelli, 9/2 with Richard Migliore is likely to be left in the barn come Derby day. He finished last in a very pedestrian effort.
Stay tuned for upcoming Prep races and the chance to lose more money!
May the horse be with you!
The Artist Formerly Known as Racetrack Lenny
Friday, March 16, 2007
Will St. Paddy's Day Be Green???
We'll be looking for a little green tomorrow at 3 major Derby prep races.
The Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3), to be run at Tampa Bay Downs at a mile and a sixteenth, attracted a field of 7. Favorite Street Sense (Calvin Borel) is listed morning line at 4/5. Not a very inviting proposition. Yes, he did win the Breeder's Cup Juvenile by 10 lengths; but, this is his first start in 2007 and he will be overbet. Also, I expect a fast pace in the race. Calvin Borel is a "full throttle" rider and will have Street Sense out there either on or close to the lead. I think Street Sense may need a race and to get anything less than 5/2 seems a bad bet. Who to bet? Any Given Saturday. Ridden by John Velasquez and trained by Todd Pletcher, Any Given Saturday has been running well and has been drilling bullet workouts leading up to this race. He is morning line listed at 9/5. If he stays there or floats up a bit to 2/1 or 5/2, he is the pick. There are two others that are quite intriguing. All I Can Get is a Michigan bred (yes, Michigan) who is morning line listed at 8/1. Shipping down to Florida for this race may seem crazy; but, they wouldn't do it unless they thought he had a shot. The other longshot is Delightful Kiss to be ridden by Jeffrey Sanchez. Hobeau Farm owns Delightful Kiss and Hobeau rarely sends out horses onto the Triple Crown trail unless they felt they had something. So, at 12/1, he's worth a stab at a few bucks. The Bet: $2 Exacta- Any Given Saturday over All I Can Get and Delightful Kiss. $2 Exacta All I Can Get and Delightful Kiss over Any Given Saturday. $2 WPS- Delightful Kiss. Total $14.
Let's move on to the San Felipe Stakes (Grade 2) at Santa Anita at a mile and one sixteenth. This race drew a short field of 6 and is pretty wide open. Air Commander (Garrett Gomez) is the morning line favorite at 8/5 with Cobalt Blue (Victor Espinoza) close behind at 9/5. Trainer Todd Pletcher has yet another Derby hopeful in Grapelli (Richard Migliore) who is morning line listed at 3/1. Todd Pletcher has at least 6 horses ready for the Derby; so, we'll give him the edge in this one and take the 3/1 odds. The Bet: $2 Exacta wheel- Grapelli over All. Total $10.
For our finale, let's look at the Rebel Stakes (Grade 3) at Oaklawn Park, also run at a mile and a sixteenth. The Rebel has been a key race for the Ky. Derby over the past several years. Smarty Jones comes to mind. The Rebel drew a field of 9 and there is value in this race. The morning line favorite is Flying First Class (Edgar Prado) at 2/1. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, you know D. Wayne will have his charge primed and ready to go. Prado flying in for the mount is a huge plus. I also like Teuflesberg (Stewart Elliott). Teuflesberg has been an "in & outer" and at 9/2, is worth a play. His connections are serious about the Derby. To round out our trifecta, local horse Xchanger (John Jacinto) at 10/1 could prove to be the "horse for the course". The Bet: $2 Exacta box: Flying First Class, Teuflesberg and XChanger. $5 WPS- Teuflesberg.
May the horse be with you!
Racetrack Lenny
The Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3), to be run at Tampa Bay Downs at a mile and a sixteenth, attracted a field of 7. Favorite Street Sense (Calvin Borel) is listed morning line at 4/5. Not a very inviting proposition. Yes, he did win the Breeder's Cup Juvenile by 10 lengths; but, this is his first start in 2007 and he will be overbet. Also, I expect a fast pace in the race. Calvin Borel is a "full throttle" rider and will have Street Sense out there either on or close to the lead. I think Street Sense may need a race and to get anything less than 5/2 seems a bad bet. Who to bet? Any Given Saturday. Ridden by John Velasquez and trained by Todd Pletcher, Any Given Saturday has been running well and has been drilling bullet workouts leading up to this race. He is morning line listed at 9/5. If he stays there or floats up a bit to 2/1 or 5/2, he is the pick. There are two others that are quite intriguing. All I Can Get is a Michigan bred (yes, Michigan) who is morning line listed at 8/1. Shipping down to Florida for this race may seem crazy; but, they wouldn't do it unless they thought he had a shot. The other longshot is Delightful Kiss to be ridden by Jeffrey Sanchez. Hobeau Farm owns Delightful Kiss and Hobeau rarely sends out horses onto the Triple Crown trail unless they felt they had something. So, at 12/1, he's worth a stab at a few bucks. The Bet: $2 Exacta- Any Given Saturday over All I Can Get and Delightful Kiss. $2 Exacta All I Can Get and Delightful Kiss over Any Given Saturday. $2 WPS- Delightful Kiss. Total $14.
Let's move on to the San Felipe Stakes (Grade 2) at Santa Anita at a mile and one sixteenth. This race drew a short field of 6 and is pretty wide open. Air Commander (Garrett Gomez) is the morning line favorite at 8/5 with Cobalt Blue (Victor Espinoza) close behind at 9/5. Trainer Todd Pletcher has yet another Derby hopeful in Grapelli (Richard Migliore) who is morning line listed at 3/1. Todd Pletcher has at least 6 horses ready for the Derby; so, we'll give him the edge in this one and take the 3/1 odds. The Bet: $2 Exacta wheel- Grapelli over All. Total $10.
For our finale, let's look at the Rebel Stakes (Grade 3) at Oaklawn Park, also run at a mile and a sixteenth. The Rebel has been a key race for the Ky. Derby over the past several years. Smarty Jones comes to mind. The Rebel drew a field of 9 and there is value in this race. The morning line favorite is Flying First Class (Edgar Prado) at 2/1. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, you know D. Wayne will have his charge primed and ready to go. Prado flying in for the mount is a huge plus. I also like Teuflesberg (Stewart Elliott). Teuflesberg has been an "in & outer" and at 9/2, is worth a play. His connections are serious about the Derby. To round out our trifecta, local horse Xchanger (John Jacinto) at 10/1 could prove to be the "horse for the course". The Bet: $2 Exacta box: Flying First Class, Teuflesberg and XChanger. $5 WPS- Teuflesberg.
May the horse be with you!
Racetrack Lenny
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
The Gotham & Louisiana Derby
You can thank Google for my being unable to give you my selections for the Gotham Stakes and the Louisiana Derby. I had suggested betting $18 and you would have collected $16.40 for a net loss of $1.60--not a disaster compared to last year. Maybe Google will send me the $1.60.
Let's take Aqueduct's Gotham Stakes (Grade 3) run last Saturday at 1-1/16th miles. To read the tout sheets, you felt as if you needed a jeweled crown to place on the head of Summer Doldrums, the even-money favorite who had won by 5 widening lengths in the Whirlaway last month. As we all know, running the race must precede the coronation. The horse wearing the crown after the Gotham was Cowtown Cat- another Todd Pletcher trained horse. Cowtown Cat (Ramon Dominguez) hugged the rail while no worse than 4th all the way until he took over in mid-stretch to win by 2-1/2 lengths. The final time was a very pedestrian 1:44-3/5. Derby hopeful Wollaston Bay (Shaun Bridgmohan) set a slow pace and then weakened to finish 7th. So much for his Derby hopes. Wafi City (Alan Garcia) showed some true grit by taking the lead at the 3/4 pole and yielding late to the winner. Wafi City, sent off at 13-1, managed to hold second. As for Summer Doldrums (Mike Luzzi), he ran a really flat race running 3rd most of the way and showing some interest very late in the race. He surely was a bounce candidate and I expect better in the Wood Memorial on the day before Easter.
Meanwhile at the Fairgrounds in Louisiana the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby was run. Sent off as the public choice at 8/5, Circular Quay (John Velasquez) won the mile and one-sixteenth mile contest by 2 widening lengths in 1:43 flat--compared to the slow Gotham. Derby hopeful Ketchikan (Larry Melancon) set the pace and could not hold off the late running Circular Quay.
Tough time of year to pick; but, we do our best.
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
Let's take Aqueduct's Gotham Stakes (Grade 3) run last Saturday at 1-1/16th miles. To read the tout sheets, you felt as if you needed a jeweled crown to place on the head of Summer Doldrums, the even-money favorite who had won by 5 widening lengths in the Whirlaway last month. As we all know, running the race must precede the coronation. The horse wearing the crown after the Gotham was Cowtown Cat- another Todd Pletcher trained horse. Cowtown Cat (Ramon Dominguez) hugged the rail while no worse than 4th all the way until he took over in mid-stretch to win by 2-1/2 lengths. The final time was a very pedestrian 1:44-3/5. Derby hopeful Wollaston Bay (Shaun Bridgmohan) set a slow pace and then weakened to finish 7th. So much for his Derby hopes. Wafi City (Alan Garcia) showed some true grit by taking the lead at the 3/4 pole and yielding late to the winner. Wafi City, sent off at 13-1, managed to hold second. As for Summer Doldrums (Mike Luzzi), he ran a really flat race running 3rd most of the way and showing some interest very late in the race. He surely was a bounce candidate and I expect better in the Wood Memorial on the day before Easter.
Meanwhile at the Fairgrounds in Louisiana the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby was run. Sent off as the public choice at 8/5, Circular Quay (John Velasquez) won the mile and one-sixteenth mile contest by 2 widening lengths in 1:43 flat--compared to the slow Gotham. Derby hopeful Ketchikan (Larry Melancon) set the pace and could not hold off the late running Circular Quay.
Tough time of year to pick; but, we do our best.
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
Welcome To The Former "Racetrack Lenny" Blog
Through the miracle of modern technology, I have had to set up a Google account and it decided not to transfer my old "Racetrack Lenny" blog along. So, if you want to see my old blog, you will have to go to it-if you remember the address. Sorry about that; but, it may be a bad thing--there weren't many winners given out last year. :)
The thing that truly sucked about Google's involvement was that you had to migrate to a Google account or you had no blog. You couldn't post to your old blog. You could get into the blog with your password; but, once you did, you were prompted to create a Google account. So, I got the hint and created a Google account.
Here's hoping Google crashes like a deck of cards.
Racetrack Lenny
The thing that truly sucked about Google's involvement was that you had to migrate to a Google account or you had no blog. You couldn't post to your old blog. You could get into the blog with your password; but, once you did, you were prompted to create a Google account. So, I got the hint and created a Google account.
Here's hoping Google crashes like a deck of cards.
Racetrack Lenny
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