Less Than A Month To Go.....

With now less than a month to go to the Run for the Roses, the picture is as foggy as ever. 4 major prep races were run yesterday and I have concluded the Derby is a pretty wide-open affair. Could we have a 5-1 favorite this year? It's quite possible.

Santa Anita Derby: Run at Santa Anita Park at 1-1/8 miles, the Santa Anita came up with one of the weakest fields in recent memory. The lukewarm 5/2 favorite, Sam P. turned in a rather dull effort finishing 3rd beaten by about 3 lengths. Derby hopeful, King of the Roxy, whose ability to get the distance was suspect, just got nailed at the wire by a surging Tiago, who rallied from last to first at 25/1. Tiago is a half-brother to Giacomo and is looking to be Derby-bound; that is if his earnings get him in. Liquidity turned in yet another dull effort. If he couldn't do it yesterday, there's not much to make me think he'll do it on May 5th.

Illinois Derby: Run at Hawthorne at 1-1/8 miles, favorite Cobalt Blue (Victor Espinoza), may not have cared for the deeper racing surface or the cold weather by finishing a well-beaten 7th--missing by 18 lengths. It was a dreadful effort and he never threatened. Instead, Cowtown Cat, ridden by Fernando Jara (he of Jazil fame) wired the field to win by a solid 2 lenghts. Trainer Todd Pletcher decided to scratch Cowtown Cat out of the Wood Memorial and run him at Hawthorne. Obviously, a good decision. However, before you get too excited about Cowtown Cat, the Illinois Derby was run in 1:51:2/5ths--a full two seconds slower than the Wood. That time won't win on Derby day. Love Dubai, shipped to Hawthorne from Great Britain to run in the Illinois Derby. He may love Dubai; but, he sure didn't love Hawthorne--a race his owners/trainer would just as soon forget. He finished last beaten better than 30 lenghts being outrun at every call. Yuck.

Bay Shore Stakes: Run at 7 furlongs at Aqueduct (which I attended on a cold day with snow flurries), the Bay Shore featured Santa Anita and Bobby Frankel trained Les Grands Trois, who was sent off at 3/5 and just managed to hang on for 3rd. Instead, the decision went to Bill Place off at 5/2. Under a masterful ride by Cornelio Velazquez, Bill Place just caught the very stubborn HobbitontheRocks, a 13/1 longshot just at the wire--which was lucky for me. Having the $57.50 exacta was kind of nice. I don't think the Derby winner was in the Bay Shore.

Wood Memorial: Run at Aqueduct at 1-1/8 miles, this was easily THE prep race of the weekend. It was a showdown between NoBiz Like ShoBiz, under Cornelio Velasquez, at 3/5 and Any Given Saturday, under John Velasquez at 8/5. In the battle of the Velasquez's; it was Cornelio who prevailed in a very exciting race. Flashstorm, John Jacinto up, at 43/1 set a wicked pace and suckered my pick, Summer Doldrums, into that hot pace. NoBiz was sitting in 3rd biding his time with Any Given Saturday biding his time in 4th. At the 3/4 pole, the Velasquez war was on in earnest. NoBiz Like ShoBiz had the rail and Any Given Saturday came up on the outside and looked him right in the eye. They raced as a team until there was 1/16th to go and NoBiz started to edge away. However, who was flying on the outside, 18/1 outsider Sightseeing. A little extra ground and Sightseeing would have been the winner.

Thoughts on the Wood: Barclay Tagg's decision to put blinkers on and plug NoBiz Like ShoBiz ears with cotton worked like a charm. I didn't like Any Given Saturday in this one particular race only because he had run his eyeballs out running against Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby. Coming back 3 weeks later, I expected a bit of a bounce and that is exactly what happened. It's a shame because I think Any Given Saturday is sitting on a huge race next time. However, he doesn't have enough earnings to have him in the top 20 for Derby day--shame on Todd Pletcher for letting that happen. If Any Given Saturday gets in, he's my pick. I thought Sightseeing was a gift at 18/1 and so I wheeled him on top and on the bottom. He got the bottom half of the exacta ticket and I was rewarded with a $26.80 payoff. Shug McGaughey says Sightseeing is not looking to tour Churchill Downs. Too bad.

I thought Summer Doldrums was a cut below these; but, I expected the speed duel to be between Flashstorm, Any Given Saturday and NoBiz Like ShoBiz. I never expected Mike Luzzi to be up prompting the pace. Maybe the horse was difficult to rate; but, I'd have a "come to Jesus" talk with Mike Luzzi. Summer Doldrums reminds me of Scrappy T. A cut below; but, on his best dangerous--look out if he enters the Preakness.

All for now. May the horse be with you,


Racetrack Lenny