The hope of a large field in the Belmont is starting to look today like a small field--maybe as few as 6. One defection is Great Hunter, finishing near the back of the pack in the Derby, who was injured in a workout and will miss the Belmont. He will be pointed towards a campaign in the Fall. Another defection is Chelokee. Trainer Michael Matz (he of Barbaro fame) announced that it was "too much, too soon" to expose Chelokee to a mile and a half race after a big win in the Barbaro Stakes on Preakness Day.
One positive development is the replacement of Hard Spun jockey Mario Pino by Garrett Gomez. I like Mario Pino. He's a good rider with a lot of talent. But, just about everyone believes he gunned Hard Spun way too soon in the Preakness and his connections believe it cost him the race. Garrett Gomez is hot right now and he is one of the best riders for horses that need to be "on or close" to the lead. I still think Hard Spun is going to make believers of a lot of fans when he wires the Belmont. We'll see.
Curlin has come out of the Preakness is good shape and he's been galloping over a mile- a very good sign. Street Sense's connections will make a decision (they say) by Wednesday whether they will go in the Belmont. Street Sense galloped the Belmont distance and came out of it in good order. It would be nice to see a "rubber match" in the Belmont.
Other "confirmed" starters include I'mawildandcrazyguy, Slew's Tizzy and Tiago. The super filly, Rags To Riches, is now on the fence. I don't know what's prompted the sudden "we don't know". Shug McGaughey looked like he would run Sightseeing; but, they're now not sure. Shug may be thinking turf for his trainee. Nobiz Like Shobiz has gone from "yes" to "maybe" to "no"--typical of Barclay Tagg--don't be surprised if Nobiz shows up in the entry box on June 6th.
French invader, Cristobal, now seems unlikely to make the trans-Atlantic trip. He's run one race, which he won. The Belmont is asking an awful lot real soon. His connections are having some second thoughts---and well they should!
Before signing off, please keep Belmont jockey, Andrew Lakeman, in your thoughts and prayers. Lakeman was severely injured this past Friday at Belmont Park when his mount broke down. He is in Long Island's North Shore Medical Center in the intensive care unit with severe internal and spinal injuries. He is in a coma and on a ventilator. Our good wishes are with him.
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
Sunday, May 27, 2007
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Now To The 9th At Belmont--The Belmont Stakes
The saddest people in the world over the outcome of the Preakness was the New York Racing Association. The lack of a triple crown draw will cost them 1/2 their crowd. If some of the top horses decide to skip the Belmont, look for less than 50,000 to show up.
Trainer Larry Jones has pretty much confirmed that Hard Spun will run in the Belmont. Don't let the Preakness fool you. Hard Spun can get the distance--he just needs to be rated and get a patient ride. I'm sensing a Bet Twice type of victory. Street Sense's connections are up in the air about the Belmont, which would be a shame. It would be great for racing for a "rubber match". I'm hoping they'll run. Curlin seems likely to go in the Belmont. Kentucky Oaks winner, Rags to Riches, seems pointed to the Belmont. She would be the first filly in a long time to try the boys in the mile and half marathon.
Other possibilities include: I'mawildandcrazyguy--who closed for 4th in the Derby. Tiago who finished 7th in the Derby; Chelokee, who won the inaugural running of the Barbaro Stakes on the Preakness undercard. Barclay Tagg seems inclined to run No Biz Like Shobiz. No Biz's Derby performance was inexplicably dreadful; anything would be an improvement. Strong closer, Sightseeing, winner of the Peter Pan seems possible. And, what would a Belmont be without a foreign horse shipping in from Europe? This year, it looks like we'll have a French shipper in Cristobal who won his lone start, something called the Prix De Ferrieres.
Stay tuned for updates.
Racetrack Lenny
Trainer Larry Jones has pretty much confirmed that Hard Spun will run in the Belmont. Don't let the Preakness fool you. Hard Spun can get the distance--he just needs to be rated and get a patient ride. I'm sensing a Bet Twice type of victory. Street Sense's connections are up in the air about the Belmont, which would be a shame. It would be great for racing for a "rubber match". I'm hoping they'll run. Curlin seems likely to go in the Belmont. Kentucky Oaks winner, Rags to Riches, seems pointed to the Belmont. She would be the first filly in a long time to try the boys in the mile and half marathon.
Other possibilities include: I'mawildandcrazyguy--who closed for 4th in the Derby. Tiago who finished 7th in the Derby; Chelokee, who won the inaugural running of the Barbaro Stakes on the Preakness undercard. Barclay Tagg seems inclined to run No Biz Like Shobiz. No Biz's Derby performance was inexplicably dreadful; anything would be an improvement. Strong closer, Sightseeing, winner of the Peter Pan seems possible. And, what would a Belmont be without a foreign horse shipping in from Europe? This year, it looks like we'll have a French shipper in Cristobal who won his lone start, something called the Prix De Ferrieres.
Stay tuned for updates.
Racetrack Lenny
You Don't Know How Lucky You Are!
Under the "Twilight Zone" moment, I could have sworn I put up my Preakness analysis on the Blog. I was away for the weekend and was going to sit down to do my Preakness postmortem, when I noticed my Preakness prognostication was missing. I searched for drafts, under my old blog, under my bed--all to no avail. I have no idea what happened. However, my mystery was your enormous gain since my order of finish was Hard Spun, Street Sense, Circular Quay. You would have bet $75 and come back with a pitiful $3 show price on Hard Spun. Turn the page.
Too bad for Street Sense. He had the race won; but, Street Sense got to the lead and decided to gawk at the crowd and lost the race on a "head-bob" to Curlin. It's time for trainer Carl Nafgzer to invest in a good set of blinkers for Street Sense. I thought Curlin had the "fear of God" put into him in the Derby and he would regress. Wrong! He came through with a breathtaking performance that equaled the track record now shared by Secretariat, Tank's Prospect and Louis Quatorze. Not bad company, huh?
With a suicidal pace being set by Xchanger and Flying First Class, Mario Pino moved Hard Spun to the lead way too early and was sucking wind in mid-stretch. This was a race meant for closers; so, it was a big disappointment when Circular Quay showed nothing. Something is not quite right with this horse. Time for a rest.
Congratulations to the connections of Curlin. I must also say that Calvin Borel on Street Sense showed a TON of class in defeat. While upset he didn't win, he was thrilled for his fellow Louisiana buddy Robby Albarado. God will always reward that type of sportsmanship. Calvin-- YOU were the winner that day!
Racetrack Lenny
Too bad for Street Sense. He had the race won; but, Street Sense got to the lead and decided to gawk at the crowd and lost the race on a "head-bob" to Curlin. It's time for trainer Carl Nafgzer to invest in a good set of blinkers for Street Sense. I thought Curlin had the "fear of God" put into him in the Derby and he would regress. Wrong! He came through with a breathtaking performance that equaled the track record now shared by Secretariat, Tank's Prospect and Louis Quatorze. Not bad company, huh?
With a suicidal pace being set by Xchanger and Flying First Class, Mario Pino moved Hard Spun to the lead way too early and was sucking wind in mid-stretch. This was a race meant for closers; so, it was a big disappointment when Circular Quay showed nothing. Something is not quite right with this horse. Time for a rest.
Congratulations to the connections of Curlin. I must also say that Calvin Borel on Street Sense showed a TON of class in defeat. While upset he didn't win, he was thrilled for his fellow Louisiana buddy Robby Albarado. God will always reward that type of sportsmanship. Calvin-- YOU were the winner that day!
Racetrack Lenny
Monday, May 14, 2007
Puny Preakness Coming Up
I guess Street Sense scared everyone away. This Saturday's Preakness is shaping up to be a ho-hum affair. The 1-2-3 finishers in the Derby will go in the Preakness. Street Sense will probably go off as the favorite--figure even money or so. Hard Spun may go as the 2nd choice and Curlin will be right behind those two. Of the three, Curlin may be the better value and may turn out to be as good as his first 3 races indicated.
The rest of the expected field just seems outclassed. King of the Roxy, 2nd in the slow Santa Anita Derby, was distance-challenged at a mile and an eigth when overtaken by longshot Tiago. Now, the King will go a bit farther. Unless there is a pedestrian pace, which seems highly unlikely, I can't see it. Ditto for Flying First Class. Yes, Flying First Class won the Derby Trial; but, it was a very weak field. Flying First Class is the perfect miler--so, distance is a question here as well.
C.P. West, a Nick Zito trainee, is shipping in after having run 2nd in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct earlier this year. Finishing 2nd while drifting out badly is a sign of a tiring horse--and that was at a shorter distance than the Preakness. Another distance-challenged horse.
Mint Slewlep had a horrible trip in the Withers and managed to finish 4th in the Withers; however, had he won the Withers, it would have been a surprise.
If you're looking at the "horse for the course" angle, then you will like Xchanger. Xchanger won the Federico Tesio at Pimlico earlier this year. That field looked more like an optional/claiming race than it did a stakes race. In any event, Xchanger has been over the track, seemed to have liked it and showed some staying power. He is stepping way up in class; but, not a total throwout--especially in trifectas and superfectas.
The field should be announced by Thursday; so, stay tuned.
Over & out,
Racetrack Lenny
The rest of the expected field just seems outclassed. King of the Roxy, 2nd in the slow Santa Anita Derby, was distance-challenged at a mile and an eigth when overtaken by longshot Tiago. Now, the King will go a bit farther. Unless there is a pedestrian pace, which seems highly unlikely, I can't see it. Ditto for Flying First Class. Yes, Flying First Class won the Derby Trial; but, it was a very weak field. Flying First Class is the perfect miler--so, distance is a question here as well.
C.P. West, a Nick Zito trainee, is shipping in after having run 2nd in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct earlier this year. Finishing 2nd while drifting out badly is a sign of a tiring horse--and that was at a shorter distance than the Preakness. Another distance-challenged horse.
Mint Slewlep had a horrible trip in the Withers and managed to finish 4th in the Withers; however, had he won the Withers, it would have been a surprise.
If you're looking at the "horse for the course" angle, then you will like Xchanger. Xchanger won the Federico Tesio at Pimlico earlier this year. That field looked more like an optional/claiming race than it did a stakes race. In any event, Xchanger has been over the track, seemed to have liked it and showed some staying power. He is stepping way up in class; but, not a total throwout--especially in trifectas and superfectas.
The field should be announced by Thursday; so, stay tuned.
Over & out,
Racetrack Lenny
Saturday, May 5, 2007
Congratulations To Street Sense & Calvin Borel
Was Street Sense's rally from 19th position to win the Derby impressive or what? There's a reason they call Calvin Borel- Calvin Bo-rail. Borel gave Street Sense a rail skimming ride; didn't panic and began picking up horses one by one. He got by leader Hard Spun and went on to win by 2 lengths.
I could kick myself for not using Street Sense on top. The reason I threw him into the 2nd tier was I didn't think the rail would open up the way it did. You usually don't see that in a 20 horse field. I was happy that Hard Spun hung on for 2nd since I played him $10 WPS. So, an $84 return to avoid the total shutout.
I was really happy for Calvin Borel. He's been toiling forever at Churchill Downs and hadn't come close to winning the Derby. He was very emotional and said he wished his parents were still alive to have witnessed his win. He has every right to be proud.
How must trainer Todd Pletcher feel this evening? He went in fully loaded with 5 entrants--all of which had a solid shot at winning and Pletcher came up with the goose egg yet again. None of his horses even hit the top 5. Absolutely amazing. Scat Daddy looked like he was making a menacing move then flattened out. Any Given Saturday was 3rd at the head of the stretch and then back-pedaled from there. Circular Quay didn't show his closing kick. His others were nowhere to be found.
NoBiz Like ShoBiz vindicated my not being sold on him. Made a menacing move and then was flatter than a pancake.
Now it's off to the Preakness in 2 weeks. That should be a really good race. Street Sense is for real. Curlin did not run a bad race; and today's experience may build some stamina for May 19th. Hard Spun should be back since he was very competitive today. Despite Any Given Saturday's 8th place finish, I'm willing to give him another chance.
Congrats again to Calvin Bo-Rail!
Racetrack Lenny
I could kick myself for not using Street Sense on top. The reason I threw him into the 2nd tier was I didn't think the rail would open up the way it did. You usually don't see that in a 20 horse field. I was happy that Hard Spun hung on for 2nd since I played him $10 WPS. So, an $84 return to avoid the total shutout.
I was really happy for Calvin Borel. He's been toiling forever at Churchill Downs and hadn't come close to winning the Derby. He was very emotional and said he wished his parents were still alive to have witnessed his win. He has every right to be proud.
How must trainer Todd Pletcher feel this evening? He went in fully loaded with 5 entrants--all of which had a solid shot at winning and Pletcher came up with the goose egg yet again. None of his horses even hit the top 5. Absolutely amazing. Scat Daddy looked like he was making a menacing move then flattened out. Any Given Saturday was 3rd at the head of the stretch and then back-pedaled from there. Circular Quay didn't show his closing kick. His others were nowhere to be found.
NoBiz Like ShoBiz vindicated my not being sold on him. Made a menacing move and then was flatter than a pancake.
Now it's off to the Preakness in 2 weeks. That should be a really good race. Street Sense is for real. Curlin did not run a bad race; and today's experience may build some stamina for May 19th. Hard Spun should be back since he was very competitive today. Despite Any Given Saturday's 8th place finish, I'm willing to give him another chance.
Congrats again to Calvin Bo-Rail!
Racetrack Lenny
Friday, May 4, 2007
Derby Analysis---For What It's Worth
A tough field to handicap as this shapes up eerily similar to 2005 when Giacomo won the Derby at 50-1 odds. Despite the pundits telling us there is a stand-out, I can tell you there isn't one. You can make a case for just about anyone in the field, except for a few who are in the Derby to satisfy someone's ego.
I'll give you my thoughts on each in post position order. After each name, I'll show the Morning Line odds and jockey: Where applicable, I'll give you my thoughts on the horse's ability to perform on an "off" track. My horse traffic network in Kentucky report a delay of today's 11th race at Churchill Downs due to heavy rain. The track has been downgraded to "sloppy". Tomorrow's forecast calls for a 30% chance of showers. Churchill does have good drainage; but, I don't think it will be a lightning fast track. Analysis:
1. SEDGEFIELD- (50/1, Julien Leparoux) One of a few "ego trip" horses in this field. Sedgefield has never raced on dirt. He has had his races on turf or at Keeneland's polytrack. His best accounting was in the March 24th Lanes End (Grade 2) at Keeneland. Don't let the second place finish to Hard Spun fool you. Sedgefield actually lost ground through the lane. Post position 1 will help to the extent that it is nearest the turf course and perhaps Sedgefield will think the race is on turf. A toss out.
2. CURLIN- (7/2, Robby Albarado) Obviously loaded with a ton of talent. 3 wins out of 3 races by daylight margins is impressive. However, who has he raced against? Not this caliber of competition. He has yet to be looked in the eye and challenged. Having him as the lukewarm favorite is a terrible underlay. Not enough reward for the risk.
3. ZANJERO- (30/1, Shaun Bridgmohan) The "Wilko" of this group. He's always "there"; but, never gets quite "there". Tough to toss out of the trifecta and superfecta wagers; but, not someone to bet with any confidence on top.
4. STORM IN MAY- (30/1, Juan Leyva) 13 lifetime starts with 4 wins in the allowance and optional claiming ranks. Not the type of horse that gets the blood stirring on the first Saturday in May. He's done his best on turf. He did finish second to Curlin in the Arkansas Derby--but that was 10 lengths back. He was all out to hold the place spot by a 1/2 length. He was 3rd in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, missing by a head. But, take a look at the half-mile split: 51. That's trotter time. His speed figures are on the light side. All that being said, if the track comes up muddy or sloppy tomorrow, you may want to take a stab at Storm In May. He is sired by Relaunch who was a superior mudder--and won me $62 at Saratoga in the mid 1990's in the slop.
5. I'MAWILDANDCRAZYGUY- (50/1, Mark Guidry) The ultimate ego trip. He was 20th in earnings to get in and will likely be 20th to cross the finish line.
6. COWTOWN CAT- (20/1, Fernando Jara) Got a rail skimming ride in the Gotham (Grade 3) run at Aqueduct on 3/10. However, it was a dawdling pace with the half going in 49-2/5ths. He put the field to sleep in the Illinois Derby (Grade 2) on 4/7 and set the tepid pace. The half in that race was again, 49-2/5ths. He will not get such a boat race pace in tomorrow's Derby. Don't think he'll have the stamina needed for the mile and a quarter.
7. STREET SENSE- (4/1, Calvin Borel) Borel is sitting on a live wire. Street Sense may finally break the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Jinx of 0-23. He was impressive coming off the bench in the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3) where he was in a stirring stretch duel with Any Given Saturday. Street Sense prevailed by a nose and posted a 102 speed rating in the process. He missed by a nose in the totally lifeless Blue Grass (Grade 1) at Keeneland's polytrack. The 1/2 mile split in that race was an unbelievably slow 51-2/5ths. No one could close into that pedestrian walk. His last two workouts show he's ready. This will ultimately come down to what Calvin Borel can do. Borel loves to save ground and get a rail skimming ride. Post position 7 suits this horse well. Will Borel get trapped on the rail???? We'll see. Street Sense does have one trip over a sloppy track---and it wasn't a good one.
8. HARD SPUN- (15/1, Mario Pino) Has been gradually building up from 5-1/2 F to a 1-1/8th miles. An impressive win at the Fairgrounds in the LeCompte (Grade 3) where he won for fun at a mile. He regressed a bit in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on 2/19. He made a strong middle move and had nothing left at the end. He ran well in the Lanes End (Grade 2) on Keeneland's polytrack winning by 3 widening lenghts. With both Danzig and Turkoman in his bloodlines, I think distance isn't a problem. I like the fact that he had a one mile workout on 4/23. He did have a 5 furlong workout on 4/30 in a perhaps too fast 57-3/5ths; but, I really like this horse. A bonus is that on a sloppy track as a 2 year old, he won for fun.
9. LIQUIDITY- (30/1, David Flores) A west coast shipper whose speed figures are on the downside. He appears to be in a downward form cycle and may have already peaked. He is a money-burner. He's been lower than 3-1 in his last three starts with no wins. He always looks like he's coming like a freight train but hangs each time.
10. TEUFLESBERG- (30/1, Stewart Elliott) 15 lifetime starts; so, lots of experience. He's one of those annoying "in & out" horses that can throw in a great race or a dismal one. He had things all his way in the slow Blue Grass on 4/14 and got nailed by 3 others in a blanket finish. If you can't hold on at a mile and an eighth after a 51 second half..... Despite this, he does have a triple digit speed figure of 100 in the Southwest Stakes where he wired the field and won at 23/1. He has won on a sloppy track; although, the distance was 6 furlongs. He had a great workout on 4/29. He has the look of a live longshot depending on which Teuflesberg shows up tomorrow.
11. BWANA BULL- (50/1, Javier Castellano) Mediocre speed figures and winning in allowance races equals defeat tomorrow.
12. NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ- (8/1, Cornelio Velasquez) A lot of folks are on this little guy's bandwagon. He showed a lot of promise as a 2 year old and ended his 2 year old season with a 6 length score in the Remsen (Grade 2) at Aqueduct last November. He came off the bench on 2/3 in the Holy Bull (Grade 3) at Gulfstream and was all out to win at 2/5 odds. He regressed in the Fountain of Youth (Grade 2) at Gulfstream on 3/3. Trainer Barclay Tagg (he of Funny Cide fame) went to blinkers on and plugged ears to have NoBiz concentrate and not be distracted. He rewarded that change with a win in the Wood Memorial (Grade 1) at Aqueduct on 4/7. Yes, he did repel a number of challenges throughout that race--I was there. However, Sightseeing was getting to him at the end and NoBiz Like ShoBiz was saved by the wire. His speed figures are remarkably consistent in the mid to high 90's. The "Funny Cide" connection may get some sentimentalists overbetting this horse and he could go off at 6/1 or so. NoBiz is also skittish with crowd noise. While ear plugs helped at the Wood Memorial, there were about 7,000 fans in attendance at beautiful Aqueduct that day. There isn't enough cotton in the South to keep the roar of 140,000 people out of one's ears. I'm not sold.
13. SAM P- (20/1, Ramon Dominguez) This is another live longshot. He has raced against many of these rivals and has finished no worse than 5th against them. He needs a good trip and that's always a problem with a cavalry charge for a field. If he can better his 99 speed rating in the RB Lewis (Grade 2) at Santa Anita, he could just hang around to be in the exotic bets.
14. SCAT DADDY- (10/1, Edgar Prado) Won both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby posting 95 and 98 speed ratings in the process. He's a grinder type in which he stalks and then gradually takes command. He doesn't blow anybody's doors off; but, he just keeps coming. Post 14 does not help. In the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, he was in a field of 14 and had to steady at the first turn in traffic. The end result was a 4th place finish--15 lenghts back. Trip will be the key. I think he'll go off at 15/1 or so. Can't toss him out.
15. TIAGO- (15/1, Mike Smith) Half-brother to the 2005 Derby winner Giacomo, he just won the Santa Anita Derby closing from out of the clouds at 29/1. In the process, he posted his best speed figure (100). I think that effort will make him bounce here. He's a notch below these and 15/1 isn't very enticing. What he does have going for him is the outside post which is ideal for a one run closer.
16. CIRCULAR QUAY- (8/1, John Velasquez) Johnny V. had several choices here and he picked Circular Quay. This one-run closer needs a quick pace to close into. He can come from far back when needed and the outside post helps this closer. He posted a sensational speed rating (102) on 3/10 in the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher decided to rest him until tomorrow instead of getting another race in him. I'm fearing a bounce off that last effort. He is sired by Thunder Gulch who won the 1995 Derby at 25/1.
17. STORMELLO- (30/1, Kent Desormeaux) Couldn't hang on in last two races. Horse is not easy to rate and wants to have the lead; that will be tough from post 17. Too much to overcome.
18. ANY GIVEN SATURDAY- (12/1, Garrett Gomez) Sensational race against Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby where he came up short a nose. He expectedly bounced in the Wood Memorial. However, his workouts suggest he's ready and I'm expecting this stalker to be very much alive at the end.
19. DOMINICAN- (20/1, Rafael Bejarano) A live longshot one-run closer. Has a very strong finishing kick but needs a hot pace to close into. While the post position keeps him out of trouble early, his style is to get early position, fall back some during the race and then unleash a good closing kick. Wouldn't be a surprise and a stab on him at 20/1 or better wouldn't get you laughed at.
20. GREAT HUNTER- (15/1, Corey Nakatani) A versatile horse who can stalk or close from way back. He's never gone off higher than 12/1 in his 9 lifetime starts. Post 20 is a killer for him because when he does close, he's not so far behind that he has to make up a ton of ground. He's a grinder type horse.
The Picks:
Tough race to pick. I believe the following 3 will be the win candidates: Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday.
The 2nd tier will be: Street Sense, Circular Quay, Dominican.
Bets:
$2 Exacta Wheel: Hard Spun/Scat Daddy/Any Given Saturday on top of Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday, Street Sense, Circular Quay, Dominican.
$1 Trifecta Wheel: Hard Spun/Any Given Saturday over Scat Daddy/Street Sense/Hard Spun/Any Given Saturday over Dominican/Circular Quay.
$2 WPS: Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday
Longshot Stab: $2 W- Teuflesberg and Storm In May
$10 WPS: Hard Spun
"Hard Spun Wins Derby"
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
I'll give you my thoughts on each in post position order. After each name, I'll show the Morning Line odds and jockey: Where applicable, I'll give you my thoughts on the horse's ability to perform on an "off" track. My horse traffic network in Kentucky report a delay of today's 11th race at Churchill Downs due to heavy rain. The track has been downgraded to "sloppy". Tomorrow's forecast calls for a 30% chance of showers. Churchill does have good drainage; but, I don't think it will be a lightning fast track. Analysis:
1. SEDGEFIELD- (50/1, Julien Leparoux) One of a few "ego trip" horses in this field. Sedgefield has never raced on dirt. He has had his races on turf or at Keeneland's polytrack. His best accounting was in the March 24th Lanes End (Grade 2) at Keeneland. Don't let the second place finish to Hard Spun fool you. Sedgefield actually lost ground through the lane. Post position 1 will help to the extent that it is nearest the turf course and perhaps Sedgefield will think the race is on turf. A toss out.
2. CURLIN- (7/2, Robby Albarado) Obviously loaded with a ton of talent. 3 wins out of 3 races by daylight margins is impressive. However, who has he raced against? Not this caliber of competition. He has yet to be looked in the eye and challenged. Having him as the lukewarm favorite is a terrible underlay. Not enough reward for the risk.
3. ZANJERO- (30/1, Shaun Bridgmohan) The "Wilko" of this group. He's always "there"; but, never gets quite "there". Tough to toss out of the trifecta and superfecta wagers; but, not someone to bet with any confidence on top.
4. STORM IN MAY- (30/1, Juan Leyva) 13 lifetime starts with 4 wins in the allowance and optional claiming ranks. Not the type of horse that gets the blood stirring on the first Saturday in May. He's done his best on turf. He did finish second to Curlin in the Arkansas Derby--but that was 10 lengths back. He was all out to hold the place spot by a 1/2 length. He was 3rd in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, missing by a head. But, take a look at the half-mile split: 51. That's trotter time. His speed figures are on the light side. All that being said, if the track comes up muddy or sloppy tomorrow, you may want to take a stab at Storm In May. He is sired by Relaunch who was a superior mudder--and won me $62 at Saratoga in the mid 1990's in the slop.
5. I'MAWILDANDCRAZYGUY- (50/1, Mark Guidry) The ultimate ego trip. He was 20th in earnings to get in and will likely be 20th to cross the finish line.
6. COWTOWN CAT- (20/1, Fernando Jara) Got a rail skimming ride in the Gotham (Grade 3) run at Aqueduct on 3/10. However, it was a dawdling pace with the half going in 49-2/5ths. He put the field to sleep in the Illinois Derby (Grade 2) on 4/7 and set the tepid pace. The half in that race was again, 49-2/5ths. He will not get such a boat race pace in tomorrow's Derby. Don't think he'll have the stamina needed for the mile and a quarter.
7. STREET SENSE- (4/1, Calvin Borel) Borel is sitting on a live wire. Street Sense may finally break the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Jinx of 0-23. He was impressive coming off the bench in the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3) where he was in a stirring stretch duel with Any Given Saturday. Street Sense prevailed by a nose and posted a 102 speed rating in the process. He missed by a nose in the totally lifeless Blue Grass (Grade 1) at Keeneland's polytrack. The 1/2 mile split in that race was an unbelievably slow 51-2/5ths. No one could close into that pedestrian walk. His last two workouts show he's ready. This will ultimately come down to what Calvin Borel can do. Borel loves to save ground and get a rail skimming ride. Post position 7 suits this horse well. Will Borel get trapped on the rail???? We'll see. Street Sense does have one trip over a sloppy track---and it wasn't a good one.
8. HARD SPUN- (15/1, Mario Pino) Has been gradually building up from 5-1/2 F to a 1-1/8th miles. An impressive win at the Fairgrounds in the LeCompte (Grade 3) where he won for fun at a mile. He regressed a bit in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on 2/19. He made a strong middle move and had nothing left at the end. He ran well in the Lanes End (Grade 2) on Keeneland's polytrack winning by 3 widening lenghts. With both Danzig and Turkoman in his bloodlines, I think distance isn't a problem. I like the fact that he had a one mile workout on 4/23. He did have a 5 furlong workout on 4/30 in a perhaps too fast 57-3/5ths; but, I really like this horse. A bonus is that on a sloppy track as a 2 year old, he won for fun.
9. LIQUIDITY- (30/1, David Flores) A west coast shipper whose speed figures are on the downside. He appears to be in a downward form cycle and may have already peaked. He is a money-burner. He's been lower than 3-1 in his last three starts with no wins. He always looks like he's coming like a freight train but hangs each time.
10. TEUFLESBERG- (30/1, Stewart Elliott) 15 lifetime starts; so, lots of experience. He's one of those annoying "in & out" horses that can throw in a great race or a dismal one. He had things all his way in the slow Blue Grass on 4/14 and got nailed by 3 others in a blanket finish. If you can't hold on at a mile and an eighth after a 51 second half..... Despite this, he does have a triple digit speed figure of 100 in the Southwest Stakes where he wired the field and won at 23/1. He has won on a sloppy track; although, the distance was 6 furlongs. He had a great workout on 4/29. He has the look of a live longshot depending on which Teuflesberg shows up tomorrow.
11. BWANA BULL- (50/1, Javier Castellano) Mediocre speed figures and winning in allowance races equals defeat tomorrow.
12. NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ- (8/1, Cornelio Velasquez) A lot of folks are on this little guy's bandwagon. He showed a lot of promise as a 2 year old and ended his 2 year old season with a 6 length score in the Remsen (Grade 2) at Aqueduct last November. He came off the bench on 2/3 in the Holy Bull (Grade 3) at Gulfstream and was all out to win at 2/5 odds. He regressed in the Fountain of Youth (Grade 2) at Gulfstream on 3/3. Trainer Barclay Tagg (he of Funny Cide fame) went to blinkers on and plugged ears to have NoBiz concentrate and not be distracted. He rewarded that change with a win in the Wood Memorial (Grade 1) at Aqueduct on 4/7. Yes, he did repel a number of challenges throughout that race--I was there. However, Sightseeing was getting to him at the end and NoBiz Like ShoBiz was saved by the wire. His speed figures are remarkably consistent in the mid to high 90's. The "Funny Cide" connection may get some sentimentalists overbetting this horse and he could go off at 6/1 or so. NoBiz is also skittish with crowd noise. While ear plugs helped at the Wood Memorial, there were about 7,000 fans in attendance at beautiful Aqueduct that day. There isn't enough cotton in the South to keep the roar of 140,000 people out of one's ears. I'm not sold.
13. SAM P- (20/1, Ramon Dominguez) This is another live longshot. He has raced against many of these rivals and has finished no worse than 5th against them. He needs a good trip and that's always a problem with a cavalry charge for a field. If he can better his 99 speed rating in the RB Lewis (Grade 2) at Santa Anita, he could just hang around to be in the exotic bets.
14. SCAT DADDY- (10/1, Edgar Prado) Won both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby posting 95 and 98 speed ratings in the process. He's a grinder type in which he stalks and then gradually takes command. He doesn't blow anybody's doors off; but, he just keeps coming. Post 14 does not help. In the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, he was in a field of 14 and had to steady at the first turn in traffic. The end result was a 4th place finish--15 lenghts back. Trip will be the key. I think he'll go off at 15/1 or so. Can't toss him out.
15. TIAGO- (15/1, Mike Smith) Half-brother to the 2005 Derby winner Giacomo, he just won the Santa Anita Derby closing from out of the clouds at 29/1. In the process, he posted his best speed figure (100). I think that effort will make him bounce here. He's a notch below these and 15/1 isn't very enticing. What he does have going for him is the outside post which is ideal for a one run closer.
16. CIRCULAR QUAY- (8/1, John Velasquez) Johnny V. had several choices here and he picked Circular Quay. This one-run closer needs a quick pace to close into. He can come from far back when needed and the outside post helps this closer. He posted a sensational speed rating (102) on 3/10 in the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher decided to rest him until tomorrow instead of getting another race in him. I'm fearing a bounce off that last effort. He is sired by Thunder Gulch who won the 1995 Derby at 25/1.
17. STORMELLO- (30/1, Kent Desormeaux) Couldn't hang on in last two races. Horse is not easy to rate and wants to have the lead; that will be tough from post 17. Too much to overcome.
18. ANY GIVEN SATURDAY- (12/1, Garrett Gomez) Sensational race against Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby where he came up short a nose. He expectedly bounced in the Wood Memorial. However, his workouts suggest he's ready and I'm expecting this stalker to be very much alive at the end.
19. DOMINICAN- (20/1, Rafael Bejarano) A live longshot one-run closer. Has a very strong finishing kick but needs a hot pace to close into. While the post position keeps him out of trouble early, his style is to get early position, fall back some during the race and then unleash a good closing kick. Wouldn't be a surprise and a stab on him at 20/1 or better wouldn't get you laughed at.
20. GREAT HUNTER- (15/1, Corey Nakatani) A versatile horse who can stalk or close from way back. He's never gone off higher than 12/1 in his 9 lifetime starts. Post 20 is a killer for him because when he does close, he's not so far behind that he has to make up a ton of ground. He's a grinder type horse.
The Picks:
Tough race to pick. I believe the following 3 will be the win candidates: Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday.
The 2nd tier will be: Street Sense, Circular Quay, Dominican.
Bets:
$2 Exacta Wheel: Hard Spun/Scat Daddy/Any Given Saturday on top of Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday, Street Sense, Circular Quay, Dominican.
$1 Trifecta Wheel: Hard Spun/Any Given Saturday over Scat Daddy/Street Sense/Hard Spun/Any Given Saturday over Dominican/Circular Quay.
$2 WPS: Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday
Longshot Stab: $2 W- Teuflesberg and Storm In May
$10 WPS: Hard Spun
"Hard Spun Wins Derby"
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
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