Derby Analysis---For What It's Worth

A tough field to handicap as this shapes up eerily similar to 2005 when Giacomo won the Derby at 50-1 odds. Despite the pundits telling us there is a stand-out, I can tell you there isn't one. You can make a case for just about anyone in the field, except for a few who are in the Derby to satisfy someone's ego.

I'll give you my thoughts on each in post position order. After each name, I'll show the Morning Line odds and jockey: Where applicable, I'll give you my thoughts on the horse's ability to perform on an "off" track. My horse traffic network in Kentucky report a delay of today's 11th race at Churchill Downs due to heavy rain. The track has been downgraded to "sloppy". Tomorrow's forecast calls for a 30% chance of showers. Churchill does have good drainage; but, I don't think it will be a lightning fast track. Analysis:

1. SEDGEFIELD- (50/1, Julien Leparoux) One of a few "ego trip" horses in this field. Sedgefield has never raced on dirt. He has had his races on turf or at Keeneland's polytrack. His best accounting was in the March 24th Lanes End (Grade 2) at Keeneland. Don't let the second place finish to Hard Spun fool you. Sedgefield actually lost ground through the lane. Post position 1 will help to the extent that it is nearest the turf course and perhaps Sedgefield will think the race is on turf. A toss out.

2. CURLIN- (7/2, Robby Albarado) Obviously loaded with a ton of talent. 3 wins out of 3 races by daylight margins is impressive. However, who has he raced against? Not this caliber of competition. He has yet to be looked in the eye and challenged. Having him as the lukewarm favorite is a terrible underlay. Not enough reward for the risk.

3. ZANJERO- (30/1, Shaun Bridgmohan) The "Wilko" of this group. He's always "there"; but, never gets quite "there". Tough to toss out of the trifecta and superfecta wagers; but, not someone to bet with any confidence on top.

4. STORM IN MAY- (30/1, Juan Leyva) 13 lifetime starts with 4 wins in the allowance and optional claiming ranks. Not the type of horse that gets the blood stirring on the first Saturday in May. He's done his best on turf. He did finish second to Curlin in the Arkansas Derby--but that was 10 lengths back. He was all out to hold the place spot by a 1/2 length. He was 3rd in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, missing by a head. But, take a look at the half-mile split: 51. That's trotter time. His speed figures are on the light side. All that being said, if the track comes up muddy or sloppy tomorrow, you may want to take a stab at Storm In May. He is sired by Relaunch who was a superior mudder--and won me $62 at Saratoga in the mid 1990's in the slop.

5. I'MAWILDANDCRAZYGUY- (50/1, Mark Guidry) The ultimate ego trip. He was 20th in earnings to get in and will likely be 20th to cross the finish line.

6. COWTOWN CAT- (20/1, Fernando Jara) Got a rail skimming ride in the Gotham (Grade 3) run at Aqueduct on 3/10. However, it was a dawdling pace with the half going in 49-2/5ths. He put the field to sleep in the Illinois Derby (Grade 2) on 4/7 and set the tepid pace. The half in that race was again, 49-2/5ths. He will not get such a boat race pace in tomorrow's Derby. Don't think he'll have the stamina needed for the mile and a quarter.

7. STREET SENSE- (4/1, Calvin Borel) Borel is sitting on a live wire. Street Sense may finally break the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Jinx of 0-23. He was impressive coming off the bench in the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3) where he was in a stirring stretch duel with Any Given Saturday. Street Sense prevailed by a nose and posted a 102 speed rating in the process. He missed by a nose in the totally lifeless Blue Grass (Grade 1) at Keeneland's polytrack. The 1/2 mile split in that race was an unbelievably slow 51-2/5ths. No one could close into that pedestrian walk. His last two workouts show he's ready. This will ultimately come down to what Calvin Borel can do. Borel loves to save ground and get a rail skimming ride. Post position 7 suits this horse well. Will Borel get trapped on the rail???? We'll see. Street Sense does have one trip over a sloppy track---and it wasn't a good one.

8. HARD SPUN- (15/1, Mario Pino) Has been gradually building up from 5-1/2 F to a 1-1/8th miles. An impressive win at the Fairgrounds in the LeCompte (Grade 3) where he won for fun at a mile. He regressed a bit in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on 2/19. He made a strong middle move and had nothing left at the end. He ran well in the Lanes End (Grade 2) on Keeneland's polytrack winning by 3 widening lenghts. With both Danzig and Turkoman in his bloodlines, I think distance isn't a problem. I like the fact that he had a one mile workout on 4/23. He did have a 5 furlong workout on 4/30 in a perhaps too fast 57-3/5ths; but, I really like this horse. A bonus is that on a sloppy track as a 2 year old, he won for fun.

9. LIQUIDITY- (30/1, David Flores) A west coast shipper whose speed figures are on the downside. He appears to be in a downward form cycle and may have already peaked. He is a money-burner. He's been lower than 3-1 in his last three starts with no wins. He always looks like he's coming like a freight train but hangs each time.

10. TEUFLESBERG- (30/1, Stewart Elliott) 15 lifetime starts; so, lots of experience. He's one of those annoying "in & out" horses that can throw in a great race or a dismal one. He had things all his way in the slow Blue Grass on 4/14 and got nailed by 3 others in a blanket finish. If you can't hold on at a mile and an eighth after a 51 second half..... Despite this, he does have a triple digit speed figure of 100 in the Southwest Stakes where he wired the field and won at 23/1. He has won on a sloppy track; although, the distance was 6 furlongs. He had a great workout on 4/29. He has the look of a live longshot depending on which Teuflesberg shows up tomorrow.

11. BWANA BULL- (50/1, Javier Castellano) Mediocre speed figures and winning in allowance races equals defeat tomorrow.

12. NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ- (8/1, Cornelio Velasquez) A lot of folks are on this little guy's bandwagon. He showed a lot of promise as a 2 year old and ended his 2 year old season with a 6 length score in the Remsen (Grade 2) at Aqueduct last November. He came off the bench on 2/3 in the Holy Bull (Grade 3) at Gulfstream and was all out to win at 2/5 odds. He regressed in the Fountain of Youth (Grade 2) at Gulfstream on 3/3. Trainer Barclay Tagg (he of Funny Cide fame) went to blinkers on and plugged ears to have NoBiz concentrate and not be distracted. He rewarded that change with a win in the Wood Memorial (Grade 1) at Aqueduct on 4/7. Yes, he did repel a number of challenges throughout that race--I was there. However, Sightseeing was getting to him at the end and NoBiz Like ShoBiz was saved by the wire. His speed figures are remarkably consistent in the mid to high 90's. The "Funny Cide" connection may get some sentimentalists overbetting this horse and he could go off at 6/1 or so. NoBiz is also skittish with crowd noise. While ear plugs helped at the Wood Memorial, there were about 7,000 fans in attendance at beautiful Aqueduct that day. There isn't enough cotton in the South to keep the roar of 140,000 people out of one's ears. I'm not sold.

13. SAM P- (20/1, Ramon Dominguez) This is another live longshot. He has raced against many of these rivals and has finished no worse than 5th against them. He needs a good trip and that's always a problem with a cavalry charge for a field. If he can better his 99 speed rating in the RB Lewis (Grade 2) at Santa Anita, he could just hang around to be in the exotic bets.

14. SCAT DADDY- (10/1, Edgar Prado) Won both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby posting 95 and 98 speed ratings in the process. He's a grinder type in which he stalks and then gradually takes command. He doesn't blow anybody's doors off; but, he just keeps coming. Post 14 does not help. In the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, he was in a field of 14 and had to steady at the first turn in traffic. The end result was a 4th place finish--15 lenghts back. Trip will be the key. I think he'll go off at 15/1 or so. Can't toss him out.

15. TIAGO- (15/1, Mike Smith) Half-brother to the 2005 Derby winner Giacomo, he just won the Santa Anita Derby closing from out of the clouds at 29/1. In the process, he posted his best speed figure (100). I think that effort will make him bounce here. He's a notch below these and 15/1 isn't very enticing. What he does have going for him is the outside post which is ideal for a one run closer.

16. CIRCULAR QUAY- (8/1, John Velasquez) Johnny V. had several choices here and he picked Circular Quay. This one-run closer needs a quick pace to close into. He can come from far back when needed and the outside post helps this closer. He posted a sensational speed rating (102) on 3/10 in the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher decided to rest him until tomorrow instead of getting another race in him. I'm fearing a bounce off that last effort. He is sired by Thunder Gulch who won the 1995 Derby at 25/1.

17. STORMELLO- (30/1, Kent Desormeaux) Couldn't hang on in last two races. Horse is not easy to rate and wants to have the lead; that will be tough from post 17. Too much to overcome.

18. ANY GIVEN SATURDAY- (12/1, Garrett Gomez) Sensational race against Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby where he came up short a nose. He expectedly bounced in the Wood Memorial. However, his workouts suggest he's ready and I'm expecting this stalker to be very much alive at the end.

19. DOMINICAN- (20/1, Rafael Bejarano) A live longshot one-run closer. Has a very strong finishing kick but needs a hot pace to close into. While the post position keeps him out of trouble early, his style is to get early position, fall back some during the race and then unleash a good closing kick. Wouldn't be a surprise and a stab on him at 20/1 or better wouldn't get you laughed at.

20. GREAT HUNTER- (15/1, Corey Nakatani) A versatile horse who can stalk or close from way back. He's never gone off higher than 12/1 in his 9 lifetime starts. Post 20 is a killer for him because when he does close, he's not so far behind that he has to make up a ton of ground. He's a grinder type horse.

The Picks:

Tough race to pick. I believe the following 3 will be the win candidates: Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday.

The 2nd tier will be: Street Sense, Circular Quay, Dominican.

Bets:

$2 Exacta Wheel: Hard Spun/Scat Daddy/Any Given Saturday on top of Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday, Street Sense, Circular Quay, Dominican.

$1 Trifecta Wheel: Hard Spun/Any Given Saturday over Scat Daddy/Street Sense/Hard Spun/Any Given Saturday over Dominican/Circular Quay.

$2 WPS: Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday

Longshot Stab: $2 W- Teuflesberg and Storm In May

$10 WPS: Hard Spun

"Hard Spun Wins Derby"

May the horse be with you,

Racetrack Lenny