I'll be out to Belmont Park for the 37th consecutive year at the Belmont Stakes. I wish the race was a good betting race; but, it certainly should be an interesting race, especially with the presence of the brilliant filly Rags To Riches.
I was a bit surprised when the track's odds-maker made Rags To Riches the 3rd choice at 3/1. Maybe the odds maker took into account the "filly versus the males" angle which will attract money to Rags. Also, a catchy name that sums up what everyone wants to happen to them--go from Rags to Riches!
Here's my thoughts on the field:
1. I'm A Wild & Crazy Guy: A one-run closer who needs a fast pace to close into. That scenario generally doesn't develop too often in the Belmont. Jazil won from last to first last year; but, the opening fractions were very fast. More often than not, tactical speed wins the race. This horse may be flying at the end; but, best to use him at the bottom of your trifecta bets.
2. Tiago: Another one-run closer who needs a strong pace. He is related to Giacomo; however, remember that Giacomo finished a non-threatening 4th in his Belmont. This west coast based horse may find the Belmont surfact a little too deep for his liking.
3. Curlin: A deserving favorite who will likely go off at even money or less. For that return, I am looking to beat him. Yes, he put in a huge run in the Preakness equaling Secretariat's record for that distance. However, is he capable of another such effort? I am betting he isn't.
4. C.P. West: Trainer Nick Zito beat Smarty Jones with Birdstone--and C.P. West has followed Birdstone's training regimen and race tab. So, a win by C.P. West, while not likely, is not totally out of the question.
5. Slew's Tizzy: Is very much overmatched here; but, he will be a pace factor. He can't get the distance. The question is will he sucker Hard Spun and Rags To Riches into matching strides early. I hope not.
6. Hard Spun: Brilliant effort in the Derby, setting a strong pace and getting beat by a brilliant Street Sense. A very nice effort in the Preakness despite Mario Pino moving much too soon on him. It cost Pino the mount as Garrett Gomez replaces him for tomorrow's race. I think he can set a sensible pace and last to the end.
7. Rags To Riches: Certainly adds an "angle" to the race. Can a filly beat the boys? Sure--if the right pace scenario sets up. She will carry 5 lbs. less than the boys which is a plus. If she can rate off the expected pacesetter- Slew's Tizzy, and get the jump on Hard Spun, she can be around at the finish line.
Bets:
$2 Exacta: 6,7 over ALL.
$1 Trifecta: 6/7 with 6/7 with 1,2,3,4,5
$1 Trifecta 6/7 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 6/7
May the horse be with you,
Racetrack Lenny
2 comments:
Here's hoping you took the filly across the board, too!
Of course, hindsight is 20/20. We actually forgot to watch the race. Oops.
Oh My Stars! Had her across the board at $20 WPS. I hit 8 out of 11 races and was up $977 for the day. The amazing thing is had I bet pick 3, p1ck 4 and pick 6 bets, I would have cashed in on 4 wins. The 2 pick 3's I didn't bet and would have one paid $234 and 319. The pick 4 paid $1,327. On the pick 6, I would have had 5 out of 6 which paid $3,329. Oh well, that's what happens when you don't have the guts to bet real money. It was a thrilling day!
Post a Comment